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Old August 16th, 2010, 03:18 PM   #1
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Downfall of American Civilization?

World Economy in General

Although I don’t think the end of the world is coming, I’d be lying if I didn’t think the value of the US Dollars could drastically drop during in the next couple of years. This could be the equivalent of the fall of American Civilization. I hate being pessimistic but it seems foolish to not think about it. And it isn’t just the American economy, but Europe’s and Asia’s economies as well. For example, when Greece’s economy collapsed in May 2010 it brought down the value of the Euro throughout Europe. It was only because of England buying 1 billion dollars worth of Euro bonds that the damage done to the European economy was reduced. Rebecca Costa discusses in her new book “The Watchman’s Rattle” how human insight is the key to solving the complex problems and recognizing which human behaviors actually prevent optimum decisions from being made. It might be a problem with no solution, but doing nothing is definitely not an option.
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Old August 19th, 2010, 09:29 PM   #2
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Kinda extreme.. Response..8888888888888888884444444444444444444444 44444444
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Old August 19th, 2010, 10:10 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by anewhope View Post
World Economy in General

Although I don?t think the end of the world is coming, I?d be lying if I didn?t think the value of the US Dollars could drastically drop during in the next couple of years.
based on what?

to which currency will world markets flee for security?
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Old August 20th, 2010, 03:52 AM   #4
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based on what?

to which currency will world markets flee for security?
There is already movement away from the US dollar as the defacto private reserve currency.

The UN has proposed a move from the dollar as the global standard. Brazil, India, China, Russia, Japan, and France are actively engaged in creating an alternative composed of the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, and gold.

The oil rich Arab states want to create a new currency that unifies the Gulf Co-operation Council, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

The standard for pricing oil is to use the US dollar, but last year Brazil began selling oil based on other currencies.

Countries are moving away from the US dollar out of fear of our future economic condition, to gain independence from the US, and to reduce US influence on the world.
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Old August 20th, 2010, 05:17 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by dave View Post
There is already movement away from the US dollar as the defacto private reserve currency.

The UN has proposed a move from the dollar as the global standard. Brazil, India, China, Russia, Japan, and France are actively engaged in creating an alternative composed of the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, and gold.

The oil rich Arab states want to create a new currency that unifies the Gulf Co-operation Council, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

The standard for pricing oil is to use the US dollar, but last year Brazil began selling oil based on other currencies.

Countries are moving away from the US dollar out of fear of our future economic condition, to gain independence from the US, and to reduce US influence on the world.
A fact that will lead to political unification and stability. America's fall, if controlled, should actively be encouraged from the pov of planetary security.
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Old August 20th, 2010, 08:57 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by anewhope View Post
World Economy in General

Although I don?t think the end of the world is coming, I?d be lying if I didn?t think the value of the US Dollars could drastically drop during in the next couple of years. This could be the equivalent of the fall of American Civilization. I hate being pessimistic but it seems foolish to not think about it. And it isn?t just the American economy, but Europe?s and Asia?s economies as well. For example, when Greece?s economy collapsed in May 2010 it brought down the value of the Euro throughout Europe. It was only because of England buying 1 billion dollars worth of Euro bonds that the damage done to the European economy was reduced. Rebecca Costa discusses in her new book ?The Watchman?s Rattle? how human insight is the key to solving the complex problems and recognizing which human behaviors actually prevent optimum decisions from being made. It might be a problem with no solution, but doing nothing is definitely not an option.
I think this point speaks to an even greater problem than just the economy. Americans - we used to be so arrogant!. We can't do anything wrong, our products are the best, we know what's right for everyone, etc...That's a very immediately post WWII mindset. We have become relunctant to change - to question our own superiority. I think that the economic problems, while very bad, is the thing that will finally "wake up" Americans to the fact that, "Hey, yeah we are great, but we could be even greater, but first we have to embrace change and look towards the future, while remembering lessons of the past!" not just "It's always been this way it's good enough!"
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Old August 20th, 2010, 11:17 AM   #7
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I think this point speaks to an even greater problem than just the economy. Americans - we used to be so arrogant!. We can't do anything wrong, our products are the best, we know what's right for everyone, etc...That's a very immediately post WWII mindset. We have become relunctant to change - to question our own superiority. I think that the economic problems, while very bad, is the thing that will finally "wake up" Americans to the fact that, "Hey, yeah we are great, but we could be even greater, but first we have to embrace change and look towards the future, while remembering lessons of the past!" not just "It's always been this way it's good enough!"
I disagree. I think the problem is that we have changed our mindset and our policies. Yes, there were errors in our foreign policy. However, our basic economic policy was to advance America?s interests as a whole.
This has changed. Today our policy is to advance the interests of a few shortsighted hogs in our oligarchy at the expense of the nation as a whole. If we remember the title of Goldwater?s book, "None dare call it treason."
Well they could, because it was actually a book to advance power and privilege. However, today, none dare call economic treason, treason. But what else is our policy today, if it?s not economic treason? We sacrifice the national interest for the interest of a few.
To say that our policies are the same as those of 1950 is to ignore such changes as our abandonment of bimetallism and the adoption of fiat money which made possible the smoke and mirrors games which bore fruit in 2008.
We have dropped our tariff wall, and force the American worker to compete against the impoverished of the World.
We have opened our borders and imported Mexican poverty to destroy unions and reduce wages.
We have exported our industrial base, and today, we have people who boast that we are second to China as an industrial power.
We are engaged in senseless wars without popular support and which only advance our economic decline. This might be said to be the same as the Korean War, but at least, in the Korean War, the government dared to have a draft. I speak with some authority on the subject, because I was in the Army then.
I could continue, but this should illustrate that we no longer have the same policies in place that we did following World War II. Our decline came not from refusing to change, but from changing.
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Old August 20th, 2010, 11:32 AM   #8
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I disagree. I think the problem is that we have changed our mindset and our policies. Yes, there were errors in our foreign policy. However, our basic economic policy was to advance America’s interests as a whole.
This has changed. Today our policy is to advance the interests of a few shortsighted hogs in our oligarchy at the expense of the nation as a whole. If we remember the title of Goldwater’s book, "None dare call it treason."
Well they could, because it was actually a book to advance power and privilege. However, today, none dare call economic treason, treason. But what else is our policy today, if it’s not economic treason? We sacrifice the national interest for the interest of a few.
To say that our policies are the same as those of 1950 is to ignore such changes as our abandonment of bimetallism and the adoption of fiat money which made possible the smoke and mirrors games which bore fruit in 2008.
We have dropped our tariff wall, and force the American worker to compete against the impoverished of the World.
We have opened our borders and imported Mexican poverty to destroy unions and reduce wages.
We have exported our industrial base, and today, we have people who boast that we are second to China as an industrial power.
We are engaged in senseless wars without popular support and which only advance our economic decline. This might be said to be the same as the Korean War, but at least, in the Korean War, the government dared to have a draft. I speak with some authority on the subject, because I was in the Army then.
I could continue, but this should illustrate that we no longer have the same policies in place that we did following World War II. Our decline came not from refusing to change, but from changing.
Sorry - I think you misunderstood (or I mis-represented what I meant - probably the later of the two). I wasn't speaking to policies proper, but the attitude of American citizens as a whole. I agree with the idea that people in power (gov't) seem to be doing things less for the country and more for their own agendas. I think it should be illegal and enforced for special interest groups to shove money towards a party and for special favors once they are elected. And I think it should be illegal and enforced that people in the gov't vote what those special interest groups want simply because they were given moeny by those groups. The overall problem I see is it's a ME ME ME nation, not an US US US nation.
And for what it's worth - for the record - I am a registered Democrat, but not a strong one, I don't agree with voting strictly along party lines for the sake of the party and I don't agree with some popular Democrat standings on issues.
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Old August 21st, 2010, 01:01 PM   #9
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Sorry - I think you misunderstood (or I mis-represented what I meant - probably the later of the two). I wasn't speaking to policies proper, but the attitude of American citizens as a whole. I agree with the idea that people in power (gov't) seem to be doing things less for the country and more for their own agendas. I think it should be illegal and enforced for special interest groups to shove money towards a party and for special favors once they are elected. And I think it should be illegal and enforced that people in the gov't vote what those special interest groups want simply because they were given moeny by those groups. The overall problem I see is it's a ME ME ME nation, not an US US US nation.
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And for what it's worth - for the record - I am a registered Democrat, but not a strong one, I don't agree with voting strictly along party lines for the sake of the party and I don't agree with some popular Democrat standings on issues.
Not sure I understand you. If you are talking about the conversion of the American public from the Hominidae to the Suidae, I believe that was accomplished through television. Television is a marvelous tool for propaganda, imagine what Hitler could have done with it. Before 1946, television was not an element of American public opinion. By 1960, it totally dominated it. However, it remained for cable to really release the floodgates. Fox News is the classic example. It?s not that the other networks don?t lie, it?s just that Fox News does it so shamelessly. The no spin zone with a straight face is a classic example.
Those who own the television stations are not elected and for all practical purposes, unregulated. After all, the First Amendment gives them the right to lie. Yet they control the reality on which the citizens base their decisions when voting. People vote on people and issues of which they have no personal knowledge in the vast majority of cases. Most of their information comes from the media, and for the American public, that is primarily television. The Internet is changing that for the worse. This forum is a case in point. Except for a few anomalous examples of which I remain the shining star, factual inaccuracy is the norm. I must concede that even I, as difficult as this may be to believe, am not really a reliable source.
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Old August 21st, 2010, 04:34 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by connermt View Post
I think this point speaks to an even greater problem than just the economy. Americans - we used to be so arrogant!. We can't do anything wrong, our products are the best, we know what's right for everyone, etc...That's a very immediately post WWII mindset. We have become relunctant to change - to question our own superiority. I think that the economic problems, while very bad, is the thing that will finally "wake up" Americans to the fact that, "Hey, yeah we are great, but we could be even greater, but first we have to embrace change and look towards the future, while remembering lessons of the past!" not just "It's always been this way it's good enough!"

What kind of "change" are you suggesting?

The nation has been changing constantly since it was founded, and the changes have certainly accelerated since WWII. The overall change has been away from individual liberties and small govt to a powerful centralized govt. As the govt becomes more powerful, it also becomes more interested in exerting its power to advance its own agenda. Since we have been the leading nation since WWII, the govt has been able to force its agenda on other nations and I think that that is the problem we face internationally.

Americans are proud of their heritage and status, just as many other people have national pride. I don't believe the problem is with the American people but with the government.

Domestically, the govt has become powerful enough to pursue its own agenda without the consent of the people. That is now so obvious that some people are taking action.
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Old August 21st, 2010, 10:28 PM   #11
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[FONT=Times New Roman] It?s easier to work towards your own interests than working together as a group to solve a problem. It's even harder to unite other countries with different global agendas towards a common goal.

There's a lot of thought provoking video clips regarding complexity and how global problems become almost impossible to solve on a Facebook community page
[COLOR=#800080]http://www.facebook.com/thewatchmansrattle

Why do we have a tendency to fight one another when we know sharing results in the most optimum outcome for everyone? Why does our biology cause us to hurt the ones we love, hoard resources and compete with one another?

Heres the link to the video
[COLOR=#800080]http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=1493017207106

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Old August 21st, 2010, 10:29 PM   #12
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[FONT=Times New Roman] Apparently, our biology determines how we react with the rest of society.
[FONT=Times New Roman]
[FONT=Times New Roman] The individual is smart and insightful.
[FONT=Times New Roman]
[FONT=Times New Roman] Humans in groups are dumb, act under peer pressure and towards social conformity.
[FONT=Times New Roman]
[FONT=Times New Roman] Without great leadership, people in groups are stupid, violent, competitive and selfish. And only if those groups of people are willing to listen to their leaders.
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Old August 22nd, 2010, 10:08 AM   #13
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One thought, and not a completely uneducated one -- the U.N. will cease to be a viable entity if the U.S. dollar fails. From my very American perspective, that in itself makes a valueless dollar look like a tolerable and survivable hardship. The dollar would recover eventually; the U.N., hopefully not.
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Old August 22nd, 2010, 10:09 AM   #14
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Oh, and I doubt American civilization will croak in any of our lifetimes. We may end up a shattered nation divided into regional powers, but that is more in line with what our founders envisioned, anyway.
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Old August 22nd, 2010, 08:17 PM   #15
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Oh, and I doubt American civilization will croak in any of our lifetimes. We may end up a shattered nation divided into regional powers, but that is more in line with what our founders envisioned, anyway.
We'd survive as a civilization but I really do see the USA becoming the next USSR within the next few decades. Remember, the USSR by and large survived, 70% of it remained intact and Belarus was (quietly) reunited with the RF to form an entirely new, quasi Soviet Union. Putin didn't approve so it ended up in limbo but still. Anywho, the USA will collapse, most of it will remain intact and everyone will still call themselves Americans.
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Old August 24th, 2010, 01:58 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by dave View Post
There is already movement away from the US dollar as the defacto private reserve currency.

The UN has proposed a move from the dollar as the global standard. Brazil, India, China, Russia, Japan, and France are actively engaged in creating an alternative composed of the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, and gold.

The oil rich Arab states want to create a new currency that unifies the Gulf Co-operation Council, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

The standard for pricing oil is to use the US dollar, but last year Brazil began selling oil based on other currencies.

Countries are moving away from the US dollar out of fear of our future economic condition, to gain independence from the US, and to reduce US influence on the world.
in 2008 the world ran to the dollar and the Japanese yen to a lesser degree

Qatar is in a state of complete misery... if they had adopted a unified regional currency it would have been useful as toilet paper

Its fairly interesting that states would seek independence from the dollar... they didn't have to invest in the dollar

anyway... I've got a great deal more confidence in America and Americans than any of the alternatives you listed.

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Oh, and I doubt American civilization will croak in any of our lifetimes. We may end up a shattered nation divided into regional powers, but that is more in line with what our founders envisioned, anyway.
we control the world shipping lanes

we control air space

we can easily control space if we wish

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We'd survive as a civilization but I really do see the USA becoming the next USSR within the next few decades. Remember, the USSR by and large survived, 70% of it remained intact and Belarus was (quietly) reunited with the RF to form an entirely new, quasi Soviet Union. Putin didn't approve so it ended up in limbo but still. Anywho, the USA will collapse, most of it will remain intact and everyone will still call themselves Americans.
When how and why?

I don't see it.

Last edited by obtuseobserver; August 24th, 2010 at 02:02 PM.
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Old August 24th, 2010, 10:22 PM   #17
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Quote:
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We'd survive as a civilization but I really do see the USA becoming the next USSR within the next few decades. Remember, the USSR by and large survived, 70% of it remained intact and Belarus was (quietly) reunited with the RF to form an entirely new, quasi Soviet Union. Putin didn't approve so it ended up in limbo but still. Anywho, the USA will collapse, most of it will remain intact and everyone will still call themselves Americans.
Not at all an unlikely scenario. However, the certainty is a bit troubling. I recently acquired a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Black Swan"
It popularizes a concept which I have held for a long time. The role of the unexpected in history. If one looks closely at history, one finds that the improbable quite often plays a role. Things happen, such as the Invasion of England by Harald III of Norway just as William the Conqueror was on his way and the variation of the weather patterns which allowed it all to fall in place for the unfortunate Harold back in 1066.
Yes, it seems to me that the American Empire is about to exit the World?s stage much as the British Empire did during World War II. However, who knows?
Germany was receiving a bit of a bashing following World War I, and along come a rather improbable figure, who managed to bungle the Beer Hall Putsch, and the next thing you know, Germany was a world power, if a bit briefly.
If a charismatic fellow shows up in America, there is more than a little frustration, and quite a few villains to name, even an ethnic group to persecute. In addition, unlike Germany in 1932, the USA still has a lot of people and a choice geopolitical location.
That?s only one of the Black Swans that might be lurking around the corner. Of course some of them might bring a completely unexpected power to the global stage. After all, in 1970, who would have believed that China would become the largest industrial power on Earth, except of course, Paul Myron Anthony Linebarger?
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Old April 1st, 2017, 06:50 PM   #18
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Quote:
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We'd survive as a civilization but I really do see the USA becoming the next USSR within the next few decades. Remember, the USSR by and large survived, 70% of it remained intact and Belarus was (quietly) reunited with the RF to form an entirely new, quasi Soviet Union. Putin didn't approve so it ended up in limbo but still. Anywho, the USA will collapse, most of it will remain intact and everyone will still call themselves Americans.
By the gods, I was expecting decades. All it took was 16 years for a socialist AND fascist revolution to not only come along but (for the fascists anyway) win and bring down the government. I'm not sure what America will look like when the fascists are done rebuilding the US in their image but I was way off on how long it would take for the capitalist order to end. I still hold that political division will happen. Now that California has a mainstream separatist movement (plus Spain and the UK about to shatter) I suspect this will come to pass far sooner than predicted as well.
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Old April 1st, 2017, 06:52 PM   #19
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Before anyone gets on me for grave digging, I had a 16 year old (Gods I'm old!) post 'Thanked' and noticed my prediction.
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Old April 2nd, 2017, 04:23 AM   #20
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LOL! Couple of years means by 2012. NEVER happened!
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