700,000 jobs lost in next report?

myp · Aug 18, 2011

This is a scary chart:

It shows the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's factory activity index charted vs. the non-farm payroll jobs number. As you can see, the latest report from the Philly Fed showed a -30.7 value in business activity (expectations were for 3.7 positive and this month had been 3.2 positive). If the jobs number continues that strong correlation, that could mean a drop of over 700,000 in the next report.

It is correlation of course, but as the chart shows it has been a strong correlation for over a decade and a half and this could be a disaster if it holds true.

myp · Aug 18, 2011

And here is one vs. the ISM manufacturing index:

DodgeFB · Aug 18, 2011

This is not a chart that I follow, but I don't think I like the look of it.

myp · Aug 18, 2011

DodgeFB said:
This is not a chart that I follow, but I don't think I like the look of it.

The white line is this particular index, the orange line is jobs and the graph dates back to ~mid 1996. As you can see the index and jobs have stayed pretty close together. If jobs continues to stay with the index, that would mean the next month is ~700,000 jobs lost. Of course the graphs don't necessarily have to stay together, but from recent history they have and if they do, the next jobs report will be bad. Not good stuff...

DodgeFB · Aug 18, 2011

myp said:
The white line is this particular index, the orange line is jobs and the graph dates back to ~mid 1996. As you can see the index and jobs have stayed pretty close together. If jobs continues to stay with the index, that would mean the next month is ~700,000 jobs lost. Of course the graphs don't necessarily have to stay together, but from recent history they have and if they do, the next jobs report will be bad. Not good stuff...

Seems like a lot of bad news about jobs lately. I heard a stockbroker on TV tonight say things would be better if everyone would just stop talking about how bad things are. He said that scares the market and makes companies afraid to hire more people.

michael_dans · Aug 18, 2011

This is true, if people keep on talking bad things continuously it really affects the market and things really go worse. Bad news spreads faster in comparison to good. However, this is really a serious matter for any country as a whole, losing some many jobs will result in a severe loss.

myp · Aug 18, 2011

Confidence is a big part of markets, but I really think that this current negative confidence is justified and not just bad confidence creating bad confidence. Some fundamentals are still very shaky and the government and Fed never let the housing market bottom after the bubble, which I think is yet to happen. The uncertainty created by DC doesn't help either...

moggo · Aug 21, 2011

myp said:
Confidence is a big part of markets, but I really think that this current negative confidence is justified and not just bad confidence creating bad confidence. Some fundamentals are still very shaky and the government and Fed never let the housing market bottom after the bubble, which I think is yet to happen. The uncertainty created by DC doesn't help either...

i am agree with ( Confidence is a big part of markets )

Cranechanelle · Aug 24, 2011

I also think confidence of the market is the big part market.But we also need more conscious before investing

dabdab · Nov 12, 2011

myp said:
Confidence is a big part of markets, but I really think that this current negative confidence is justified and not just bad confidence creating bad confidence. Some fundamentals are still very shaky and the government and Fed never let the housing market bottom after the bubble, which I think is yet to happen. The uncertainty created by DC doesn't help either...

Confidence is a big part of markets if you are talking about stock market or derivatives but if you are talking about real production of goods and services then it is amatter of supply and demand or purchasing power .but don't expect any confidence to come back to this market .the real bubble is not in the housing as a commodity the bubble was in finance sector which was financing derivatives more than actual housing construction . and no amount of bail out money will help if all they can do is trying to revive this did horse namely wall street .I do agree with you have the government rfused to bail out and let this market bottom after the bubble,then consentrated later on on reviving the other sectors of economy , it would be better but who is really the government ?. wall street is the government .

myp · Nov 12, 2011

dabdab said:
Confidence is a big part of markets if you are talking about stock market or derivatives but if you are talking about real production of goods and services then it is amatter of supply and demand or purchasing power .but don't expect any confidence to come back to this market .the real bubble is not in the housing as a commodity the bubble was in finance sector which was financing derivatives more than actual housing construction . and no amount of bail out money will help if all they can do is trying to revive this did horse namely wall street .I do agree with you have the government rfused to bail out and let this market bottom after the bubble,then consentrated later on on reviving the other sectors of economy , it would be better but who is really the government ?. wall street is the government .

Confidence is a part of all markets, not just the stock market. A retailer who expects poor Christmas sales is going to hire less and buy less inventory than one who is confident in strong sales.

dabdab · Nov 12, 2011

all markets are not the same as far as confidence is concern speculations live and die by the rumors. retailers tend to relie on experiance and they never hire according to rumors there is a different source for confidence . but they can buy or sell under the influence of rumors , they are speculating then.

David · Nov 12, 2011

dabdad, you are vary hard to read. lol

myp · Nov 12, 2011

dabdab said:
all markets are not the same as far as confidence is concern speculations live and die by the rumors. retailers tend to relie on experiance and they never hire according to rumors there is a different source for confidence . but they can buy or sell under the influence of rumors , they are speculating then.

The absolutely do hire based on "rumors" and confidence. There are many studies on seasonal employment and its existence is almost undeniable.

dabdab · Nov 12, 2011

David said:
dabdad, you are vary hard to read. lol

I'm sorry .I'm still practicing my english any advice ?

dabdab · Nov 12, 2011

myp said:
The absolutely do hire based on "rumors" and confidence. There are many studies on seasonal employment and its existence is almost undeniable.

seasonal employment exestance is dependant on seasonal demand , like christmas shopping , or seasonal production like agriculture . but they never absolutely hire absolutely based on rumors

myp · Nov 12, 2011

dabdab said:
seasonal employment exestance is dependant on seasonal demand , like christmas shopping , or seasonal production like agriculture . but they never absolutely hire absolutely based on rumors

What do you mean by rumors here? Rumors are uncertain just as predictions are. Some are credible, others not. Both are acted upon.

dabdab · Nov 12, 2011

myp said:
What do you mean by rumors here? Rumors are uncertain just as predictions are. Some are credible, others not. Both are acted upon.

Rumors are :"an unverified account or explanation of events circulating from person to person and pertaining to an object, event, or issue in public concern"
predictions are "prediction or is a statement about the way things will happen in the future, often but not always based on experience or knowledge"
No amount of positive talk would create jobs , or demand for goods and services . and no amount of negative talk will losen the grep of wall street on the economy and stoping the "force feeding" the economy those Ponzi scheme-like called product like CDO .

David · Nov 13, 2011

dabdab said:
I'm sorry .I'm still practicing my english any advice ?

Spell check, Firefox and Chrome have it built in (you can also run it thru the Google search box). Your grammar is mostly right so if you can spell the words right most of your communication issues should be solved.

dabdab · Nov 13, 2011

if I was not using google search box to correct my spelling you would block me from first post . MY SPILLING IS HORRIBLE .
thanks for the tip

700,000 jobs lost in next report?

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