China a threat... what about N. Korea?

Delta · Apr 5, 2009

So as you may know, North Korea fired a rocket recently that potentially has the ability to carry nuclear warheads as far as Hawaii. I guess this has got the UN in quite a panic.

Apparently Kim is looking for a war:

Kim Jong-il, the North Korean dictator, has hinted that if the missile is destroyed, his country will strike back violently, conduct a second nuclear weapons test and ruin years of American disarmament diplomacy.

I wouldn't be surprised if I see WWIII before my life is over.

What's with these crazy countries anyway...

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article5992936.ece

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090405/ap_on_re_as/as_nkorea_missile

GekiDan · Apr 5, 2009

I remember hearing on the news that it was only a satellite that the country will use. But if they were be able to launch that kind of rocket, it will only mean that they can lauch a nuclear rocket that would decipitate an entire country.

deanhills · Apr 6, 2009

GekiDan said:
I remember hearing on the news that it was only a satellite that the country will use. But if they were be able to launch that kind of rocket, it will only mean that they can lauch a nuclear rocket that would decipitate an entire country.

I'm still puzzled though. Where did the missile become a satellite? Surely everyone were talking about the same missile before the satellite was launched? Sort of mind-boggling. Also if it was a missile as the US and South Korea are claiming, and it did fall into the Pacific Ocean, where is it? In a day and age where science is so advanced that everyone knows exactly where everything is, and what it looks like, i.e. sophisticated surveillance systems, I would have imagined there would have been a number of photos taken of the launch. Where are they?

Delta · Apr 6, 2009

deanhills said:
I'm still puzzled though. Where did the missile become a satellite? Surely everyone were talking about the same missile before the satellite was launched? Sort of mind-boggling. Also if it was a missile as the US and South Korea are claiming, and it did fall into the Pacific Ocean, where is it? In a day and age where science is so advanced that everyone knows exactly where everything is, and what it looks like, i.e. sophisticated surveillance systems, I would have imagined there would have been a number of photos taken of the launch. Where are they?

I'm not sure what you are trying to say, just that it wasn't actually fired? The missile was meant to carry the satellite but crashed. I would assume there are photos taken of the launch... I doubt those would be released to the public?

The Parakeet · Apr 6, 2009

North Korea stated that they were just launching a satellite with a rocket. We're pretty sure it was a missile test. I know that they tracked the two things it dropped. I assume that someone is looking for the boosters in the water and that they are trying to find the rocket. It's going to be hard though, since the currents could probably carry it around quickly.

I just don't know about N. Korea. I still think he's just flexing his muscles to keep his military happy. He also probably knows that Obama will just buy him off. He already said that he's going to offer N. Korea more incentives in their negotiations, so it was probably a smart move overall.

As far as an overall threat. They aren't even remotely a threat to us. The absolute worst that they could do now is hit South Korea, Hawaii, or Japan with a dirty missile (it will take at least 10 years of really high level science to make a real nuke). If they did that, then they would be the parking lot formerly known as North Korea within 7 days. We have plenty of fuel bombs and China doesn't seem to be behind them on this one.

GekiDan · Apr 6, 2009

The Parakeet said:
I just don't know about N. Korea. I still think he's just flexing his muscles to keep his military happy. He also probably knows that Obama will just buy him off. He already said that he's going to offer N. Korea more incentives in their negotiations, so it was probably a smart move overall.

I can say they have made a smart move so they can make more money right? From what I have seen on TV, N. Korea basically have a large army of soldiers. What I am thinking is, N. Korea, from the looks of it, is preparing for a world war.

The Parakeet · Apr 6, 2009

They may be preparing for it, but it won't work. They waited too long. The day of the soldier is over. One fuel bomb could take out entire assault columns. Just look at the conflict in Afghanistan. Our air support made it fairly easy for the outnumbered resistance fighters to steam roll through the Taliban.

deanhills · Apr 7, 2009

I think I am more worried about possible war between North Korea and Japan. Japan was very upset about this latest missile testing event. All the major wars that we know off have started with a side-event of sorts, and this is one that probably will need close monitoring. Hopefully the United Nations Security Council will come up with a savvy resolution that China and Russia can live with as the Japanese have emphasized how important that would be for them. It will also be a great test for Obama's resolve in Prague for meaningful sanctions against people who break international rules.

GekiDan · Apr 7, 2009

deanhills said:
I think I am more worried about possible war between North Korea and Japan. Japan was very upset about this latest missile testing event. All the major wars that we know off have started with a side-event of sorts, and this is one that probably will need close monitoring. Hopefully the United Nations Security Council will come up with a savvy resolution that China and Russia can live with as the Japanese have emphasized how important that would be for them. It will also be a great test for Obama's resolve in Prague for meaningful sanctions against people who break international rules.

Yes. I remember hearing that Japan will be a direct target if the missile/rocket misses or misfires. And it is said that it can destroy a large city.

I really hope that the United Nations takes their move to prevent them from doing that kind of, I think, nonsense.

curious · Apr 7, 2009

deanhills said:
I think I am more worried about possible war between North Korea and Japan. Japan was very upset about this latest missile testing event. All the major wars that we know off have started with a side-event of sorts, and this is one that probably will need close monitoring. Hopefully the United Nations Security Council will come up with a savvy resolution that China and Russia can live with as the Japanese have emphasized how important that would be for them. It will also be a great test for Obama's resolve in Prague for meaningful sanctions against people who break international rules.

It will be more than a war between North Korea and Japan. It will be a war between the US and Japan. We have bases there, we have a defense treaty, and we will respond if Japan is attacked. For that matter, China will probably respond to. And South Korea.

GekiDan · Apr 7, 2009

curious said:
It will be more than a war between North Korea and Japan. It will be a war between the US and Japan. We have bases there, we have a defense treaty, and we will respond if Japan is attacked. For that matter, China will probably respond to. And South Korea.

Almost all US allied have a US base on their country. Am I right?
If it is a war between US and japan, they will surely repeat history.

That is what I don't want to happen again.

Sparks · Apr 7, 2009

curious said:
It will be more than a war between North Korea and Japan. It will be a war between the US and Japan. We have bases there, we have a defense treaty, and we will respond if Japan is attacked. For that matter, China will probably respond to. And South Korea.

I am sure you mean that it will be a war between North Korea and Japan with the USA's assisting Japan due to our treaty obligations. I am sure that many of South Korea's politicians would be happy to see someone clean North Korea's clock, particularly if South Korea doesn't have to pay for it or get too involved until after the dust settles.

War with or involving China would be a much more serious thing. I hope we have learned enough from World War One not to allow the smaller fry to lead the big fish into a disaster.

GekiDan · Apr 7, 2009

Sparks said:
I am sure you mean that it will be a war between North Korea and Japan with the USA's assisting Japan due to our treaty obligations. I am sure that many of South Korea's politicians would be happy to see someone clean North Korea's clock, particularly if South Korea doesn't have to pay for it or get too involved until after the dust settles.

I think that is what he meant. But war is not the only option. Right? They can just take a seat and talk about it on the same table. What I meant is Peace Talks. So that no innocent people will be harmed especially children.

The Parakeet · Apr 8, 2009

Kim's a bit to insane at times to have full faith in negotiations. He'll probably just accept the aid and then happily continue the program anyway. He's not exactly been trustworthy in the past.

Again, it would not turn into a full world war. I don't think China is behind them on this, so it would be more of a bombing campaign against his bases and offensives. The only real loss would be any civilization losses.

deanhills · Apr 9, 2009

curious said:
It will be more than a war between North Korea and Japan. It will be a war between the US and Japan. We have bases there, we have a defense treaty, and we will respond if Japan is attacked. For that matter, China will probably respond to. And South Korea.

Wow, World War, that would be aweful, can imagine they will try their level best to avoid it. So probably will have to do anything to calm down Japan.

Sparks · Apr 9, 2009

As the USA learned, peace talks with the North Koreans can be more of a three ringed circus. And the North Koreans tested the UN troops resolve during the period of the peace talks with battles such as: military engagements in this period included the Battle of Bloody Ridge [27]:160 and Battle of Heartbreak Ridge [27]:161-162 in 1951, the Battle of Old Baldy, the Battle of White Horse, the Battle of Triangle Hill and the Battle of Hill Eerie in 1952, the sieges of Outpost Harry, the Battle of the Hook and the battle for Pork Chop Hill in 1953.

Clipped from Wikipedia

omej · Apr 9, 2009

There's a really good commentary by Joseph Cirincione on North Korea. I won't type out the whole thing here but basically it is an analysis of their rocket and estimated nuclear tecnology. Despite what many people thing, their technology is surpringsly primitive and the threat hasn't changed much in recent years.

One thing that this article doesn't really take into consideration is who the N. Koreans might sell their technology too.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/04/05/cirincione.north.korea/index.html#cnnSTCText

Delta · Apr 10, 2009

curious said:
It will be more than a war between North Korea and Japan. It will be a war between the US and Japan. We have bases there, we have a defense treaty, and we will respond if Japan is attacked. For that matter, China will probably respond to. And South Korea.

Would China and Russia not likely side with N. Korea? I haven't really followed foreign affairs much but if I had to guess it would be russia, china, n. korea and the middle east on a "team".

deanhills · Apr 10, 2009

Delta said:
Would China and Russia not likely side with N. Korea? I haven't really followed foreign affairs much but if I had to guess it would be russia, china, n. korea and the middle east on a "team".

Right on. Yes, in the United Nations Security Council china and Russia would do just that and that would not be a surprise. Everyone expects it as this is as this is a stated policy of both China and Russia. From a nuclear development point of view I think (stand corrected in this) that North Korea is getting most of its input from Russia.

curious · Apr 18, 2009

GekiDan said:
Almost all US allied have a US base on their country. Am I right?
If it is a war between US and japan, they will surely repeat history. That is what I don't want to happen again.

No, we no longer have bases in France, we don't have bases in the UK, or Canada. We actually only have bases in a few countries. The ones I can think of offhand are Germany, Spain (a big naval base), Turkey, Japan, Korea, Bahrain (the navy again), Iraq, Afghanistan, and a couple of new ones in the former Soviet bloc. We also have a base in Cuba, which is not considered to be an ally.

I don't think it would be a world war. We'd carpet bomb North Korea if they attacked Japan, and North Korea would pretty much no longer exist.

They play this game over and over. They do something agressive, the rest of the world indicates dire consequences that we really don't want to deliver, they angle for some concession, we give them some of it, they act like they are stopping whatever, then when they get what they want, they dream up another provocation.

The only thing that ever worked was the 'Kim's favorite things' embargo. We made a list of all the luxuries that are the great leader's favorites, and embargoed them. No scotch whiskey, no Godiva chocolates, none of the luxury goods he likes. That got us inspectors on the ground for a while.

China a threat... what about N. Korea?

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