Through the latest data in mid-May, and excluding the three states that are behind on reporting data, here are all the states, listed from best to worst, in terms of how much their mortality rates were elevated during the pandemic:
Hawaii 2.60%
New Hampshire 5.22%
Massachusetts 8.12%
Maine 8.78%
Puerto Rico 9.32%
Nebraska 10.77%
Rhode Island 11.36%
Minnesota 11.39%
Iowa 11.46%
Washington 11.50%
Maryland 11.55%
District of Columbia 11.75%
Wisconsin 12.20%
North Dakota 12.84%
Pennsylvania 13.37%
Ohio 13.91%
Delaware 14.08%
Missouri 14.14%
Indiana 14.51%
Connecticut 14.56%
Vermont 15.20%
Virginia 15.26%
Kansas 15.49%
Utah 15.51%
Idaho 15.54%
Oregon 15.61%
New York 15.72%
New Jersey 15.76%
North Carolina 16.22%
Illinois 16.23%
Florida 16.52%
Kentucky 16.81%
United States 17.23%
Michigan 17.26%
Colorado 18.01%
Tennessee 18.07%
Arkansas 18.21%
Montana 18.55%
South Carolina 18.62%
California 18.62%
Oklahoma 18.67%
Louisiana 19.21%
Nevada 19.43%
West Virginia 19.83%
Alabama 20.20%
Georgia 21.89%
Wyoming 22.94%
Texas 24.20%
New Mexico 24.24%
Mississippi 24.49%
Arizona 25.77%
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/xkkf-xrst/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD&bom=true&format=true target=
A few interesting things to note:
(1) Back in 2020, some of the best-performing states were highly rural states, where natural distancing and isolation kept death rates down while the urban cosmopolitan areas were getting hammered. But 2021 and 2022 mixed that up. Some isolated and rural areas continued to do well enough that they're near the top of the list (e.g., NH, ME, and NE). Others had such a miserable time that they not only erased their early success, but fell among the worst overall performers when viewing the entire pandemic era (WY, OK, and WV).
(2) Generally speaking, more liberal areas (with higher vaccination rates and more aggressive anti-virus policies) experienced smaller increases, while the laissez-faire conservative states had larger increases. There are exceptions, though. Nebraska and Iowa did pretty well, despite conservatism, while New Mexico and Nevada did fairly badly, despite being center-left.
(3) Even within the left/right divide, places with higher vaccination tended to do better. For example, Florida had the highest vaccination rate of any red state, and managed to outperform the country as a whole, slightly. Nevada and Michigan, despite being blue states, had low vaccination rates and performed worse than the nation as a whole.
(4) The gaps here are monumental, in terms of what they mean for extra lives lost. For example, Arizona suffered 35,437 more deaths during the pandemic than would have been expected given its pre-pandemic mortality rates. If excess deaths had happened at the same rate as in Massachusetts, that figure would be 11,168. So, the extra, just relative to Massachusetts, is 24,269. If Arizona had an Uvalde-scale mass shooting every day, day after day, week after week, month after month, it would take over three years for it to raise excess deaths that much. It's a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.
Hawaii 2.60%
New Hampshire 5.22%
Massachusetts 8.12%
Maine 8.78%
Puerto Rico 9.32%
Nebraska 10.77%
Rhode Island 11.36%
Minnesota 11.39%
Iowa 11.46%
Washington 11.50%
Maryland 11.55%
District of Columbia 11.75%
Wisconsin 12.20%
North Dakota 12.84%
Pennsylvania 13.37%
Ohio 13.91%
Delaware 14.08%
Missouri 14.14%
Indiana 14.51%
Connecticut 14.56%
Vermont 15.20%
Virginia 15.26%
Kansas 15.49%
Utah 15.51%
Idaho 15.54%
Oregon 15.61%
New York 15.72%
New Jersey 15.76%
North Carolina 16.22%
Illinois 16.23%
Florida 16.52%
Kentucky 16.81%
United States 17.23%
Michigan 17.26%
Colorado 18.01%
Tennessee 18.07%
Arkansas 18.21%
Montana 18.55%
South Carolina 18.62%
California 18.62%
Oklahoma 18.67%
Louisiana 19.21%
Nevada 19.43%
West Virginia 19.83%
Alabama 20.20%
Georgia 21.89%
Wyoming 22.94%
Texas 24.20%
New Mexico 24.24%
Mississippi 24.49%
Arizona 25.77%
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/xkkf-xrst/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD&bom=true&format=true target=
A few interesting things to note:
(1) Back in 2020, some of the best-performing states were highly rural states, where natural distancing and isolation kept death rates down while the urban cosmopolitan areas were getting hammered. But 2021 and 2022 mixed that up. Some isolated and rural areas continued to do well enough that they're near the top of the list (e.g., NH, ME, and NE). Others had such a miserable time that they not only erased their early success, but fell among the worst overall performers when viewing the entire pandemic era (WY, OK, and WV).
(2) Generally speaking, more liberal areas (with higher vaccination rates and more aggressive anti-virus policies) experienced smaller increases, while the laissez-faire conservative states had larger increases. There are exceptions, though. Nebraska and Iowa did pretty well, despite conservatism, while New Mexico and Nevada did fairly badly, despite being center-left.
(3) Even within the left/right divide, places with higher vaccination tended to do better. For example, Florida had the highest vaccination rate of any red state, and managed to outperform the country as a whole, slightly. Nevada and Michigan, despite being blue states, had low vaccination rates and performed worse than the nation as a whole.
(4) The gaps here are monumental, in terms of what they mean for extra lives lost. For example, Arizona suffered 35,437 more deaths during the pandemic than would have been expected given its pre-pandemic mortality rates. If excess deaths had happened at the same rate as in Massachusetts, that figure would be 11,168. So, the extra, just relative to Massachusetts, is 24,269. If Arizona had an Uvalde-scale mass shooting every day, day after day, week after week, month after month, it would take over three years for it to raise excess deaths that much. It's a catastrophe of unimaginable proportions.
