Job growth slows in March, unemployment down to 8.2%

Mar 2009
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Why do you say that?
How long can they keep things near zero without doing more harm than good? It has to end someday. I think that day is coming sooner than later. I am sure the "Nervous Nellie's " in the market will panic when it happens. :D

Who loans money anywhere around zero anyway? There is a reason for that.;)
 

myp

Jan 2009
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How long can they keep things near zero without doing more harm than good? It has to end someday. I think that day is coming sooner than later. I am sure the "Nervous Nellie's " in the market will panic when it happens. :D

Who loans money anywhere around zero anyway? There is a reason for that.;)

They've already hit the lower bound in setting the rate (which is the Fed funds rate, the rate of interbank lending [which answers your question of who lends at near 0]), hence quantitative easing. The potential harm of their behavior is inflation and potential market distortion. According to the inflation measures the Fed uses (and most general inflation measures) inflation is not a problem right now, it at times has even been below 2%. As for market distortion, the answer varies based on who you talk to and ranges from it doesn't happen to it's a negative we can take for the positives of easing.
 
Mar 2009
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They've already hit the lower bound in setting the rate (which is the Fed funds rate, the rate of interbank lending [which answers your question of who lends at near 0]), hence quantitative easing. The potential harm of their behavior is inflation and potential market distortion. According to the inflation measures the Fed uses (and most general inflation measures) inflation is not a problem right now, it at times has even been below 2%. As for market distortion, the answer varies based on who you talk to and ranges from it doesn't happen to it's a negative we can take for the positives of easing.
What do you think the chances are of a slingshot effect from this when inflation starts? And that causing a rapid inflation.:unsure:
 

myp

Jan 2009
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What do you think the chances are of a slingshot effect from this when inflation starts? And that causing a rapid inflation.:unsure:

That's what the critics are afraid of but Bernanke and company don't think it will happen that way (as a slingshot) and even if it does, they insist it is easier to stabilize things by deflating the currency through increased rates and selling treasuries. It is an interesting conundrum. Say we don't do this at all- how far are you willing to let the inflation rate drop? 1%? 0.5%? 0? Negatives? Then you might have a whole other set of problems - i.e. a deflationary spiral (if you buy into that). And then there is the stimulus aspect which has a whole range of opinions and potential problems with and without such stimulus.

As for the Fed acting the way it is, you might attribute that to the dual mandate it has from Congress in that it has to maintain price stability (inflation/deflation) while also targeting full employment. Sort of opposing goals there, but the full employment mandate might justify such actions.
 
Mar 2009
2,751
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That's what the critics are afraid of but Bernanke and company don't think it will happen that way (as a slingshot) and even if it does, they insist it is easier to stabilize things by deflating the currency through increased rates and selling treasuries. It is an interesting conundrum. Say we don't do this at all- how far are you willing to let the inflation rate drop? 1%? 0.5%? 0? Negatives? Then you might have a whole other set of problems - i.e. a deflationary spiral (if you buy into that). And then there is the stimulus aspect which has a whole range of opinions and potential problems with and without such stimulus.

As for the Fed acting the way it is, you might attribute that to the dual mandate it has from Congress in that it has to maintain price stability (inflation/deflation) while also targeting full employment. Sort of opposing goals there, but the full employment mandate might justify such actions.
I would like to see the 'devaluation" of the dollar stop. I hate that printing more money idea.
 

myp

Jan 2009
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I would like to see the 'devaluation" of the dollar stop. I hate that printing more money idea.

So you don't believe there should be a consistent inflation rate of around 2%? What would you prefer?

And it isn't printed when rates are lowered, but it is created when the Fed buys treasuries (although effectively destroyed when it sells them).
 
Mar 2009
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So you don't believe there should be a consistent inflation rate of around 2%? What would you prefer?

And it isn't printed when rates are lowered, but it is created when the Fed buys treasuries (although effectively destroyed when it sells them).
I believe if our dollar was worth more it would buy more. I don't see why I would want a dollar worth less than a dollar.:D

When the government prints money to pay debt does that not make my dollar worth less?:unsure:
 

myp

Jan 2009
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I believe if our dollar was worth more it would buy more. I don't see why I would want a dollar worth less than a dollar.:D
The Fed has to target something. Ideally it would be 0% inflation meaning no deflation or inflation, but it is an imperfect game with imperfect tools, which is why it targets 2%- because if actual inflation falls lower than the target it hopefully still falls at or above 0%. Deflation is arguably much worse than inflation, especially low inflation, in what it does to the economy. Depending on what one believes in this could be a deflationary spiral or monetary policy that is too tight and could stall the economy as it did during the Great Depression. Those cases aside, if there is generally an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation, then deflation could mean higher unemployment.

When you think of the role of money most people think it should just be a means of exchange and a store of value, not an investment vehicle. For that you would want a 0% inflation rate. But when the tools can't perfectly get you that, you have the risk of having below 0% inflation and greater than 0% inflation month to month or whenever you are gauging inflation. If greater than 0% is the better evil of the two, it might make sense to target an inflation rate above 0%. And that is why we target a 2% inflation rate.

When the government prints money to pay debt does that not make my dollar worth less?:unsure:
The government doesn't really print money to pay debt. It sells treasury bonds. It is when the Fed buys those bonds with newly made money that you might see it that way. Except that the Fed has not done this historically and even now it is meant to be temporary in that they will eventually sell those treasuries (or most of them) which will mean a "destruction" of money as the treasuries enter the market and the dollars leave it.
 
Mar 2009
2,751
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The Fed has to target something. Ideally it would be 0% inflation meaning no deflation or inflation, but it is an imperfect game with imperfect tools, which is why it targets 2%- because if actual inflation falls lower than the target it hopefully still falls at or above 0%. Deflation is arguably much worse than inflation, especially low inflation, in what it does to the economy. Depending on what one believes in this could be a deflationary spiral or monetary policy that is too tight and could stall the economy as it did during the Great Depression. Those cases aside, if there is generally an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation, then deflation could mean higher unemployment.

When you think of the role of money most people think it should just be a means of exchange and a store of value, not an investment vehicle. For that you would want a 0% inflation rate. But when the tools can't perfectly get you that, you have the risk of having below 0% inflation and greater than 0% inflation month to month or whenever you are gauging inflation. If greater than 0% is the better evil of the two, it might make sense to target an inflation rate above 0%. And that is why we target a 2% inflation rate.


The government doesn't really print money to pay debt. It sells treasury bonds. It is when the Fed buys those bonds with newly made money that you might see it that way. Except that the Fed has not done this historically and even now it is meant to be temporary in that they will eventually sell those treasuries (or most of them) which will mean a "destruction" of money as the treasuries enter the market and the dollars leave it.
I remember back in the late 60s they did away with ""silver certificates". For some reason I have not trusted the government playing games with money since. Once again it comes down to me not trusting the government. And this little group we have now has not increased my faith in them doing the right things.
 

myp

Jan 2009
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I remember back in the late 60s they did away with ""silver certificates". For some reason I have not trusted the government playing games with money since. Once again it comes down to me not trusting the government. And this little group we have now has not increased my faith in them doing the right things.

That is fine, but what is your alternative? Do you believe in free banking (anyone can start their own currency- there is no national currency)? There is no perfect solution, only better and worse options.
 
Mar 2009
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That is fine, but what is your alternative? Do you believe in free banking (anyone can start their own currency- there is no national currency)? There is no perfect solution, only better and worse options.
I believe the currency is now and always will be controlled by sellouts and crooks. They will do as they wish because they can.:rolleyes:
 

myp

Jan 2009
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I believe the currency is now and always will be controlled by sellouts and crooks. They will do as they wish because they can.:rolleyes:

Is it controlled by sellouts and crooks? If the incentives are aligned correctly their interest can be everyone's interest. Basically how checks and balances is supposed to work in the Federal government. That is the whole goal of designing a system that is effective.
 
Dec 2011
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Obama would like to get the unemployment rate down to around 7.5%. I think that is achievable and he could make an argument that he has us back on course and better roads are ahead.

If we are not to at least 7.8%, for unemployment by the time the elections roll around, it could be legitimately used as a weakness and hurt him a little.
 
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