What do you guys think of Keynesian economics? I've heard of it before, but forget what is it about. Can someone explain it to me? Thanks!
With regard to the recent economic problems, Keynes believed that the government has to make up for the decrease in consumer and business economic activity. The idea is that as the economy takes a downturn, business slows down, people get worried and spend less, which causes business to scale back further, people start losing their jobs, the unemployment situation increases the peoples concerns about their own job and they start saving more and spending less, etc etc etc. It is a cycle that can feed on itself. The result if untreated can be a recession or depression. To stop the cycle, the loss in economic activity is replaced by increases in government spending - a stimulus from the government. The spending is supposed to be "targeted and timely" (a phrase we heard a lot last year) so that the result is increased business activity and lower unemployment.
Another aspect is that government spending has a multipleir effect - a dollar spent is worth more than $1. The idea is that the govt gives a dollar to GM as part of a car payment, GM uses that $1 to pay an employee, who spends it on groceries, the grocer uses it to pay an employee, who uses it to pay the day care worker, etc. Some believe the multipler is 1.4, but its a very difficult thing to measure.
For example, "targeted and timely" might mean the following. The government decides to replace its old vehicles, so it sends a huge 2-year order to GM and Chrysler. That keeps the GM & Chrysler assembly lines running, orders to suppliers stay high, workers don't get laid off and keep spending their paycheck on new tv's and vacations which keeps other people working. In return, the government gets new cars, saves on maintenance on the old cars, and can even sell the old cars and make some money.
For another example, the government funds the acceleration of the replacement of damaged bridges. They have to be replaced anyway, and its important infrastructure that will provide transportation benefits for decades.
Where does the money for the stimulus come from? The govt borrows the stimulus money expecting to pay it back when the economy improves and govt revenue increases, and people are in a better position to pay increased taxes.
That's the basic idea, that's not what happened last year.