Texit?

David · Jun 25, 2016

I really don't see it happening (I DO think it has the support to end up on the ballot though) but it's still something to consider. Hawaii is another state in a similar situation and California and Vermont are also secessionist strongholds to say nothing of the 'The South will rise again!' crowd. If Texas does vote for independence in the midterms, other states will follow (in voting, I can't say if they would actually vote for independence) potentially destabilizing the Union.

The Federal Government would be hard pressed to stop a peaceful disunion lacking popular support (Americans wouldn't support civil war over a peaceful separatist movement), economic power (states leaving and taking their economic strength with them and the impact on the stock market) and legal support (the SC's position on the constitutionality of succession wouldn't actually mean anything to independent states and the UN's position on self-determination brings up the fact that the Constitution holds treaty law at an equal position to constitutional law).

What are your thoughts on this possibility and do you support it? If you do support it, is that support based on self-determination or are you yourself a secessionist?

tecoyah · Jun 26, 2016

IF by chance Texas leaves (one can only hope), I give it a year before it begs to come back when Financial reality makes it defunct. God forbid they get a hurricane without FEMA to bail them out. When other states watch it fail they will NEVER consider doing the same to themselves.

David · Jun 26, 2016

tecoyah said:
IF by chance Texas leaves (one can only hope), I give it a year before it begs to come back when Financial reality makes it defunct. God forbid they get a hurricane without FEMA to bail them out. When other states watch it fail they will NEVER consider doing the same to themselves.

Texas has it's own military (all states do but theirs is practically impressive), has an independent power grid and is the world's #12 economy. So long as they lined up a trade deal with Mexico (or any large economy really, Mexico is the logical choice) and planned a new currency ahead of time, they could stay afloat long enough to stabilize. Again, I don't see it happening but the idea that they'd fail outright is just wrong.

tecoyah · Jun 26, 2016

David said:
Texas has it's own military (all states do but theirs is practically impressive), has an independent power grid and is the world's #12 economy. So long as they lined up a trade deal with Mexico (or any large economy really, Mexico is the logical choice) and planned a new currency ahead of time, they could stay afloat long enough to stabilize. Again, I don't see it happening but the idea that they'd fail outright is just wrong.

Texas does not have their own military, they have the NATIONAL guard which would revert to the nation that pays for and provides it. The power grid is owned by the Fed as far as infrastructure and likely they would need to buy it or rent it. The economy is largely based on the government paying for military and functional needs. Any new currency would be in competition with the dollar and would be devalued if it survived and any trade with Mexico would be insufficient to keep it going...they would instead need to negotiate a trade agreement with the United States which would not be good for them. They could somehow form militia and supply shotguns...any other weaponry they would need to buy from the folks they just snubbed.

tecoyah · Jun 27, 2016

Aufgeblassen said:
Texass was just struck down by the Supreme Court on an abortion law. They can expect the same for leaving the Union.

Do you seriously believe they are bright enough to learn a lesson?

David · Jun 27, 2016

But as I said, what value do the rulings of the USSC have to a state that rejects the authority of D.C.? It'd be as meaningless as Queen Elizabeth II trying to dictate to them. If a state leaves, the US has no legal recourse. They can either accept it or send in the troops.

Also, the UN would support the move (so long as it was decided democratically) due to it's policy of self-determination. As the US is a signatory to the relevant treaty, a democratic withdraw is constitutional. The US would have to either abandon the treaty (undermining every position we hold against dictatorships) or amend the Constitution so that treaty law becomes secondary to constitutional law.

tecoyah · Jun 28, 2016

David said:
But as I said, what value do the rulings of the USSC have to a state that rejects the authority of D.C.? It'd be as meaningless as Queen Elizabeth II trying to dictate to them. If a state leaves, the US has no legal recourse. They can either accept it or send in the troops.

Also, the UN would support the move (so long as it was decided democratically) due to it's policy of self-determination. As the US is a signatory to the relevant treaty, a democratic withdraw is constitutional. The US would have to either abandon the treaty (undermining every position we hold against dictatorships) or amend the Constitution so that treaty law becomes secondary to constitutional law.

If Texas decided to leave the republic and abandon it's obligations as well, it is probable that the United States would do much the same thing we have done to Russia. Surround the perpetrator and impose sanction to collapse it. Think of this as todays siege tactics and Texas as an enemy castle.

With only Mexico as a supply route Texas would not last long before it's people began starving and revolt began

David · Jun 28, 2016

tecoyah said:
If Texas decided to leave the republic and abandon it's obligations as well, it is probable that the United States would do much the same thing we have done to Russia. Surround the perpetrator and impose sanction to collapse it. Think of this as todays siege tactics and Texas as an enemy castle.

With only Mexico as a supply route Texas would not last long before it's people began starving and revolt began

This ignores the economic blow to the US damaging it's ability to maintain sanctions or the possibility of other states leaving. If you saw Texas AND California leave for example, the economic blow would cripple the US and probably trigger a Soviet style collapse. You also assume the people, who like head lice more that the folks in D.C., would back any anti-independence move. The fact is, if a state decided to peacefully leave and thought about an exit strategy ahead of time instead of being impulsive, it'd work. Violent insurrection is really the only way the Feds could move to stop it without shooting themselves in the foot.

tecoyah · Jun 28, 2016

David said:
This ignores the economic blow to the US damaging it's ability to maintain sanctions or the possibility of other states leaving. If you saw Texas AND California leave for example, the economic blow would cripple the US and probably trigger a Soviet style collapse. You also assume the people, who like head lice more that the folks in D.C., would back any anti-independence move. The fact is, if a state decided to peacefully leave and thought about an exit strategy ahead of time instead of being impulsive, it'd work. Violent insurrection is really the only way the Feds could move to stop it without shooting themselves in the foot.

IF a state decided to succeed, the Federal government would obviously be aware of possibilities and make preparations accordingly. Not only would they be relatively unaffected they would make it VERY clear to everyone what they intend to do and likely have replacement economics in place. California would indeed be difficult to replace but, the Fed would pull everything out before t left and begin growing another state (probably Oregon) and make the economy of California a relatively small blow.
The Federal Government would feel pain from the loss....California would fall apart. This would be similar in Texas, But far quicker and much more damaging to the new "Republic".

David · Jun 29, 2016

Except that there a strong national economies that are smaller than many of our state economies. So long as Independence wasn't an impulsive move and the US didn't start blowing their shit up, most states could leave and survive. The only separatist state that would have a hard time going it alone would be Vermont. Every other state thinking about leaving could do so if they did it right. Even Vermont could survive (or they wouldn't have a strong separatist movement), they'd just have to talk Canada into being their military and line up all sorts of trade agreements that the US would be hard pressed to stop without starting a war. Not likely but then I never said any states were going to actually leave. Your out of hand dismissal of the possibility however is wishful thinking and demonstrably false.

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