Trump’s trade war hurting US economy

Jun 2013
465
24
Earth
#61
21. James Pethokoukis, a columnist for The Week, is the DeWitt Wallace Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he runs the AEIdeas blog. He has also written for The New York Times, National Review, Commentary, The Weekly Standard, and other places. The following is full text of his August 10, 2017 opinion piece entitled "This is not Trump's economy".

(Begin text)
How much credit should President Trump get for a U.S. economy that's generating lots of jobs and for a stock market that keeps setting record highs?

Very little.

Trump, of course, thinks MAGAnomics is doing the trick, as do his most ardent supporters. After the July jobs numbers came out last week, Fox News and other members of Team Trump were touting the more than 1 million private-sector jobs created since Inauguration Day. Over on Trump TV, former CNN pundit Kayleigh McEnany was even crediting the president with personally creating them. That Obama created the same number of jobs during his final six months was considered less newsworthy, apparently.

Presidents are always given too much credit or blame for economic performance on their watch. So many factors are outside their control. But beyond that, the idea that this is already "Trump's economy" is ridiculous. None of Trump's big agenda items — at least the ones corporate America and Wall Street really care about — have become law. No ObamaCare repeal. No massive tax cuts. No trillion-dollar infrastructure. Nothing.

To the extent that any president "owns" an economy's performance, we're still in the Obama era. Indeed, we really ought to credit the economic performance during the first year of any president's term to his predecessor — after all, it's mostly that other guy's budgets and policies directly influencing the economy. So for instance, George W. Bush's economy wasn't from 2001 through the end of 2008 — it was 2002 through the end of 2009. And so on.

This change would make a big difference. During George W. Bush's two terms, GDP growth averaged 2.1 percent as 1.4 million new jobs were added. Pretty unimpressive. But recalculated — Bush gets Obama's first year and loses his first year to Bill Clinton — and the 43rd president's record looks even worse: just 1.5 percent growth and a loss of 1.1 million jobs.

This isn't to say Trump should get zero credit for anything good that's happened this year. It's certainly reasonable that the stock market's 10 percent rise since Trump took the oath of office at least partially reflects investor expectations about his growth plan. But how much? It's always tough to parse these things. Believe it or not, there's more going on in the world than Trump, such as a synchronized upswing in the global economy for the first time since the Great Recession.

There are more complications that don't easily fit the GOP's pro-Trump narrative: First, even when new policies or the expectations of policy changes matter, too much weight shouldn't be given to short-term performance. The very large Reagan tax cuts in the early 1980s were supposed to improve U.S. productivity growth. But there was no upturn until the mid-1990s. This time around, tax cuts might boost growth, but probably not too much if they are temporary and greatly worsen the deficit.

Second, don't forget the Federal Reserve. The Obama recovery is as much if not more the Bernanke-Yellen recovery, just as easing by the Volcker Fed helped ignite the Reagan boom. With the Yellen Fed thinking the economy is near or at full employment, the central bank could offset further fiscal stimulus with more rapid and continued tightening of monetary policy. Or monetary policy could stay loose and continue as a tailwind to growth.

Third, Washington isn't the whole ballgame. While one might partially credit the 1990s boom to Reaganomics' tax and regulatory changes, one should also credit Moore's Law, the PC revolution, and the emergence of the internet. Whatever Trump does might pale compared to what's happening in Silicon Valley. As I wrote last week, the IT revolution is far from over and might still have a huge impact on productivity and growth.

This isn't the Trump economy. If anything, it's the Obama economy — or the AmazonAppleFacebookGoogle economy. (End text)

Source: http://theweek.com/articles/717156/not-trumps-economy
 
Nov 2017
3,350
85
FL Treasure Coast & South Central FL
#63
Jun 2013
465
24
Earth
#65
AS OF FOUR (4) DAYS AGO!!!


https://www.advisorperspectives.com.../data/d3/d30a2c77c8e1ac219aa9e0affd9ca208.png

The economy just keeps getting better & better & better, despite reedak's FAKE NEWS claims!!!-hello?

Lowest unemployment claims since 1969!!! - that's almost 50 years!!!



https://www.advisorperspectives.com.../data/9e/9e94d6f56eb3c009d37a67e70445531c.png

You are pissing in the wind, my friend!!!

My great friend, you have posted the wrong graphs which show unemployment insurance weekly claims started sliding all the way before the middle of 2009, that is, about 7 years before Trump was elected into office. In short, Obama has handed his greatest gift to Trump -- the continuation of US economic growth since sometime before the middle of 2009.

Please don't think other netizens are as dumb as you without graph literacy and comprehension.

As to your misplaced praise for your idol, let us look more closely at the real picture...

Some 50.8 million households or 43% of households can’t afford a basic monthly budget for housing, food, transportation, child care, health care and a monthly smartphone bill, according to an analysis of U.S. government data released this month by the United Way Alice Project, a nonprofit based in Cedar Knolls, N.J. that aims to highlight the number of people who live in poverty.

“For too long, the magnitude of financial instability in this country has been understated and obscured by misleading averages and outdated poverty calculations,” said John Franklin, chief executive of the United Way Alice Project. “It is morally unacceptable and economically unsustainable for our country to have so many hardworking families living paycheck to paycheck.”

https://politicalfray.com/threads/trump-the-pied-piper-leading-americans-to-never-never-land.8210/

P.S. You are not only addicted to having transplants at the top, now you also get a transplant at the bottom with a rubber hose. Keep enjoying your favourite pastime in the wind ! :)
 
Aug 2018
212
51
Shady Dale, Georgia
#66
The large percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck didn’t just happen in the last year. It’s been happening since manufacturing jobs were allowed to leave this country.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Nov 2017
3,350
85
FL Treasure Coast & South Central FL
#67
The large percentage of people living paycheck to paycheck didn’t just happen in the last year. It’s been happening since manufacturing jobs were allowed to leave this country.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
People "living paycheck to paycheck" obviously "have champagne taste on a beer budget" and/or simply have no clue how to budget! :rolleyes:
 
Aug 2018
212
51
Shady Dale, Georgia
#68
People "living paycheck to paycheck" obviously "have champagne taste on a beer budget" and/or simply have no clue how to budget! :rolleyes:
Many have never learned how to save. They get a check for $400, they spend $400. Drive through any government housing area. Actually observe when you drive through there. How many luxury name plated vehicles are there? Lexus, Infinity, Acura, Cadillac, Lincoln? How many cars have 22" rims? How many of those government subsidized homes have cable television? I'm using subsidized housing as an example because most living there are paycheck to paycheck. You could just as easily use trailer park or low income apartment complex.

The next problem is excuses. "These people don't make enough to save," is the common one. That's a myth. Get your payroll set up with 10% going to a separate account. On a $10 per hour wage that's $40 per week. In a year that's over $2k. In ten years, you would have a year's salary in savings.
 
Nov 2017
3,350
85
FL Treasure Coast & South Central FL
#69
Many have never learned how to save. They get a check for $400, they spend $400. Drive through any government housing area. Actually observe when you drive through there. How many luxury name plated vehicles are there? Lexus, Infinity, Acura, Cadillac, Lincoln? How many cars have 22" rims? How many of those government subsidized homes have cable television? I'm using subsidized housing as an example because most living there are paycheck to paycheck. You could just as easily use trailer park or low income apartment complex.

The next problem is excuses. "These people don't make enough to save," is the common one. That's a myth. Get your payroll set up with 10% going to a separate account. On a $10 per hour wage that's $40 per week. In a year that's over $2k. In ten years, you would have a year's salary in savings.
Each and every year my company had a 401K plan (for the last 15 years or so of the 17 total years I religiously put 16% of my pay gross pay into it, which is the max. my company MATCHED dollar for dollar, so as of today, the acct. has over $400K! :D

BTW: We indeed lived "paycheck-to-paycheck" back then, but the future rewards were worth it!