U.S. Economy Unexpectedly Contracts?

Jul 2009
5,883
Port St. Lucie
How is this even possible with our brilliant leader in control?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324156204578273611039517142.html
After 3.5 years of growth we have a 0.1% drop in economic activity and you try to score political points? :giggle:

Also the drop is due to spending cuts by the gov't, more robust growth is expected going forward.

http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/30/news/economy/gdp-report/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

It's "the best-looking contraction in U.S. GDP you'll ever see," Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist for Capital Economics said in a research note. "The drag from defense spending and inventories is a one-off. The rest of the report is all encouraging."
 
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Oct 2012
281
Flower Mound, TX (In the basement.)
ROFLMAO!

But, but...HE said that we were on the right track and this was a great recovery.

Of course I want to score political points. HE lied to us and that wasn't for political points?

If that drop in growth was due to a reduction in government spending then it, our economy, is worse than I thought. Government spending is up to 40% borrowed, which is not a good thing. Also, just another example of the terrible shape our civilian economy is in.....even after 3.5 years of "recovery".

Bobo, the Post Turtle, is doing a great job of ruining this country.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
If that drop in growth was due to a reduction in government spending then it, our economy, is worse than I thought. Government spending is up to 40% borrowed, which is not a good thing. Also, just another example of the terrible shape our civilian economy is in.....even after 3.5 years of "recovery".
Expectations matter. The borrowing matters less short term because it is long term. The recovery is now, not 20 years from now.

We need to stop quibbling over stupid issues like the debt ceiling and embrace, not threaten, the Federal Reserve for loose monetary policy. That will go a long way. Possibly some infrastructure spending on top wouldn't hurt either.
 
Oct 2012
281
Flower Mound, TX (In the basement.)
There is no recovery NOW. What they, the MSM and the Democrats, call a recovery is in fact just going backward at a slower rate. That's not a recovery.

Spending money we don't have and building up massive debt DOES matter, both short term and long term.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
There is no recovery NOW. What they, the MSM and the Democrats, call a recovery is in fact just going backward at a slower rate. That's not a recovery.

Spending money we don't have and building up massive debt DOES matter, both short term and long term.
Show me the data. Politics doesn't apply here. When the chairman of the Fed, a Republican mindyou, and virtually every economist calls it a recovery, it is a recovery. It is one that has had its setbacks though because of stupidity on the hill- like the debt ceiling thing.

Recovery is just a word though- call it what you like, but that doesn't change the numbers (unless you are the Fed or something in which case it might change expectations, impacting future numbers)
 
Oct 2012
281
Flower Mound, TX (In the basement.)
Words have meaning. I agree. When the GDP numbers are made public for the first quarter of 2013 and if they are again in the negative, then we will be officially in a recession.

With new taxes, more borrowing, more regulations and the government still dysfunctional, the future does not look bright.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
Words have meaning. I agree. When the GDP numbers are made public for the first quarter of 2013 and if they are again in the negative, then we will be officially in a recession.

With new taxes, more borrowing, more regulations and the government still dysfunctional, the future does not look bright.
Borrowing isn't the issue right now. There is nothing to suggest it. The taxes, perhaps. The evil eye on the Fed that might have held it back- yes. Debt ceiling- yes.

The numbers don't suggest that we will dip into recession again in my opinion. We've had glimpses of strong recovery over the last year which have only gotten squabbled by DC back into weak recovery, but a new recession isn't quite apparent yet.
 
Oct 2012
4,211
Louisville, Ky
There is no recovery NOW. What they, the MSM and the Democrats, call a recovery is in fact just going backward at a slower rate. That's not a recovery.

Spending money we don't have and building up massive debt DOES matter, both short term and long term.
Though it may be misguided...I prefer to read and listen to learned economists and financial leaders when it comes to matters of economy and finance. It seems they disagree with your interpretation of the data.
 
Oct 2012
281
Flower Mound, TX (In the basement.)
I doubt that Milton Friedman would disagree with my interpretation of the data.

Our economy is not healthy....by anyone's standards.

Whether you agree or not, if the economy goes negative for this current quarter, the USA will officially be in a recession. That's not my opinion. That's by definition.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
I doubt that Milton Friedman would disagree with my interpretation of the data.
Actually... he probably would. Monetary policy is currently heavily driven by monetarist ideas. Friedman almost won across the board in that area vs. the old Keynesians.

The right likes to claim Friedman as their own, but as usual the political side gets it wrong. Friedman could have cared less about left or right- it was about utility. Remember he is the guy who supported a negative income tax to support the poor too. This might be a bit off-topic but it hits close to home because Friedman has had a great impact on my thought and beliefs. He was a brilliant man who is often misunderstood in populist movements/crowds. His methodology was of a much higher standard- a scientific standard.
 
Oct 2012
281
Flower Mound, TX (In the basement.)
Actually... he probably would. Monetary policy is currently heavily driven by monetarist ideas. Friedman almost won across the board in that area vs. the old Keynesians.

The right likes to claim Friedman as their own, but as usual the political side gets it wrong. Friedman could have cared less about left or right- it was about utility. Remember he is the guy who supported a negative income tax to support the poor too. This might be a bit off-topic but it hits close to home because Friedman has had a great impact on my thought and beliefs. He was a brilliant man who is often misunderstood in populist movements/crowds. His methodology was of a much higher standard- a scientific standard.
I too, very much like the teachings of Friedman. I agree that he was more of an independent thinker leaning toward Libertarian ideas. Me too. I have no problem with his idea of a negative income tax.....other than I do not like the idea of taxing income at all.

Remember what Friedman said of LBJ's so called war on poverty? If you pay people to be poor, you are going to have a lot of poor people.

That is what this current administration is doing and it is ruining what is left of our economy.

I still say Milton Friedman would be appalled at what is happening today.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
I too, very much like the teachings of Friedman. I agree that he was more of an independent thinker leaning toward Libertarian ideas. Me too. I have no problem with his idea of a negative income tax.....other than I do not like the idea of taxing income at all.

Remember what Friedman said of LBJ's so called war on poverty? If you pay people to be poor, you are going to have a lot of poor people.

That is what this current administration is doing and it is ruining what is left of our economy.

I still say Milton Friedman would be appalled at what is happening today.
His negative income tax wasn't based on income- it was basically just a flat return, so not really tied to income. It would be applied to the filing of income taxes just because that infrastructure already existed.

As for the LBJ thing, not sure what your point is or what that has to do with recovery.
 
Oct 2012
4,211
Louisville, Ky
I doubt that Milton Friedman would disagree with my interpretation of the data.

Our economy is not healthy....by anyone's standards.

Whether you agree or not, if the economy goes negative for this current quarter, the USA will officially be in a recession. That's not my opinion. That's by definition.
Had you stated "Our economy is not healthy....by anyone's standards", I would not have replied as I did. You did not state it though...thus I replied to the claim we are not in recovery.

Also, unless you have something from the National Bureau of Economic Research stating what you claim...it carries no more weight than the earlier comment.
 
Oct 2012
4,211
Louisville, Ky
I too, very much like the teachings of Friedman. I agree that he was more of an independent thinker leaning toward Libertarian ideas. Me too. I have no problem with his idea of a negative income tax.....other than I do not like the idea of taxing income at all.

Remember what Friedman said of LBJ's so called war on poverty? If you pay people to be poor, you are going to have a lot of poor people.

That is what this current administration is doing and it is ruining what is left of our economy.

I still say Milton Friedman would be appalled at what is happening today.

And here it is again...it is unfair to claim something in one post:

I doubt that Milton Friedman would disagree with my interpretation of the data.
Then when challenged, pretend you actually said something else:

I still say Milton Friedman would be appalled at what is happening today.

This seems poor debate style to me.
 
Oct 2012
281
Flower Mound, TX (In the basement.)
Had you stated "Our economy is not healthy....by anyone's standards", I would not have replied as I did. You did not state it though...thus I replied to the claim we are not in recovery.

Also, unless you have something from the National Bureau of Economic Research stating what you claim...it carries no more weight than the earlier comment.

Our economy is not healthy.

We are not in a recovery. We are just going backward at a slower rate.

I stand by my statements.
 
Oct 2012
281
Flower Mound, TX (In the basement.)
And here it is again...it is unfair to claim something in one post:



Then when challenged, pretend you actually said something else:




This seems poor debate style to me.
I stand by my statements. If you think it is poor debating style, well, I really don't care. What I said is true.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
Our economy is not healthy.

We are not in a recovery. We are just going backward at a slower rate.

I stand by my statements.
Remember when you insisted that Romney would blow out Obama despite the data and despite what the analyses that people like Nate Silver were doing to project the election? Your position here reminds me of that. //just something that came to mind...