What do you expect from Iran?

Oct 2012
4,214
Louisville, Ky
"
Jerusalem Post
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/The-unthinkable-Soleimani-killed-in-Iraq-612962

Hajj Qasem, the “shadow commander,” Israel’s “most dangerous enemy,” has been killed in
Iraq alongside his key disciple Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

Iran’s activities in 2019 were accelerated and represented an increasing threat to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon
and Yemen, as well as a threat along 3,000 miles of frontline from the Lebanese border with Israel to the
Gulf of Oman and Yemen.
Soleimani was a key part of constructing Iran’s threats along this line. Muhandis was, as his name suggests,
the engineer who helped to build up Iran’s role in Iraq and also into Syria.

These men, Soleimani, Muhandis and their network, were personally austere and frugal. They dressed in
almost everyday clothing without chests festooned with a salad of medals. They went among the civilian
populace and among their men as one of them. They were often mild in their manners. Videos of Muhandis
show him relaxing, laying on the ground for to catch a few seconds nap and speaking softly. These men
represented a dangerous threat not because of their boasts but because of their practicalities and decades
honing their abilities.

It is hard to over-estimate the significance of this to Iran. Some have likened it to killing America's Vice President.
It is obvious there will be Iranian payback, and escalation of regional conflict. "

I am unsure what will happen next but imagine a bit of new terrorism in the U.S.
 
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Dec 2019
64
U.S. Arkansas
I certainly am not privy as to where Iran stands presently with their nuclear bomb development or their delivery technology . But I do know it takes a low grade nuke exploded in the lower atmosphere to conduct an Electro magnetic pulse .According to the U.S. E.M.P. Commission -- one large E.M.P exploded over the state of Kansas would disable ALL the power grids in the U.S. for a minimum of one year . Great Britten told it's citizens in such an event to expect not any electricity for at LEAST two years . This would mean no automobile fuel ,grocery stores , electric for cooking or heating , A.T.M. and such . I know saying this will make some mad as the old saying " you can't handle the truth " is actually true for some of the more delicately minded . I am going to presume we have mature adults on here that can handle the truth . Trying to keep people in the dark on issues is not much of a solution .
 
Oct 2012
4,214
Louisville, Ky
I certainly am not privy as to where Iran stands presently with their nuclear bomb development or their delivery technology . But I do know it takes a low grade nuke exploded in the lower atmosphere to conduct an Electro magnetic pulse .According to the U.S. E.M.P. Commission -- one large E.M.P exploded over the state of Kansas would disable ALL the power grids in the U.S. for a minimum of one year . Great Britten told it's citizens in such an event to expect not any electricity for at LEAST two years . This would mean no automobile fuel ,grocery stores , electric for cooking or heating , A.T.M. and such . I know saying this will make some mad as the old saying " you can't handle the truth " is actually true for some of the more delicately minded . I am going to presume we have mature adults on here that can handle the truth . Trying to keep people in the dark on issues is not much of a solution .
Though an EMP burst would have dire effects, it is an extremely inefficient means of attack and would generate a far more robust response from the attacked. The use of ANY nuclear device would declare war and the entire world would be behind ANY level of retribution, I would hope no one is stupid enough to go there.
 
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Dec 2019
64
U.S. Arkansas
Iran has made it no secret their ultimate goal is to Nuke Israel as well as the U.S. Their inbreed way of thinking is not the same as the thinking process of U.S. citizens . I don't question their seriousness to fulfill their dream . I only question their ability to carry it out .
 
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Jan 2020
18
Georgia
Iran has made it no secret their ultimate goal is to Nuke Israel as well as the U.S. Their inbreed way of thinking is not the same as the thinking process of U.S. citizens . I don't question their seriousness to fulfill their dream . I only question their ability to carry it out .
their nuke program was pretty much halted by the Iran Nuclear deal,
now there's definitely no stopping them from continuing to develop, in fact now they have more motivation than ever

Iran knows trump isn't the most stable person, and acts on a whim, and that the US has far more resources than they do
so I'm not sure they're going to use military retaliation (not right away at least)

the speculation is that Iran will retaliate on the cyber war end, and possibly go after trump's personal finances

I don't know what will happen, but we can count on retaliation in one form or another.
 

Southern Dad

Forum Staff
Aug 2018
563
Shady Dale, Georgia
Iran will want to take some kind of action to save face. The problem is that Iran understands that President Trump isn't playing. He acted with restraint until there was American loss of life. If Iran does something that damages property, but doesn't kill anyone, I think Trump will not take further action and they will have saved face. An example would be to ram a speed boat into one of our Navy ships causing damage but no loss of life. (This is just an example.). They may set something up to look like it failed. Maybe a suicide bomber with a faulty vest.
 
Dec 2019
64
U.S. Arkansas
I am not going to stand by this recent incoming information , but reportedly Trump just had some drone strikes conducted on Iran within the last few hours . Don't confuse this with the Iran's General air strike .
 
Dec 2019
64
U.S. Arkansas
Without hearing any more about the drone strike , I am going to presume this was bad information and post my apology for posting something from a bad source .
 
Oct 2012
4,214
Louisville, Ky
"
One day after the US killed a top Iranian general — a major escalation between the two countries — another strike was reportedly conducted in Iraq, this time targeting members of Iranian-backed paramilitaries in the country.


Early Saturday morning local time, a two-car convoy containing members of the Popular Mobilization Forces, the overarching group for those Iranian-backed militias, was struck, killing at least five people, according to multiple international media outlets."
 
Dec 2019
64
U.S. Arkansas
No problem in regard to Iran " our weaponry is bigger than theirs . Let them do their worse " that is why I am already bugged out to my survival retreat " . Ready to sit back and watch the show .
 
Jul 2009
5,883
Port St. Lucie
Iran will want to take some kind of action to save face. The problem is that Iran understands that President Trump isn't playing. He acted with restraint until there was American loss of life. If Iran does something that damages property, but doesn't kill anyone, I think Trump will not take further action and they will have saved face. An example would be to ram a speed boat into one of our Navy ships causing damage but no loss of life. (This is just an example.). They may set something up to look like it failed. Maybe a suicide bomber with a faulty vest.
This is dangerous thinking. Iran is to what Russia as SA is to the US and Syria proved they're willing to wade into the quagmire. Ya we killed their top man. He was immediately replaced by his handpicked successor, our alliance with Iraq was shattered, our allies told us to fuck off and Iran just got all sorts of sympathy points from the rest of the world. They could assassinate some D.C. bigshot or military brass and we wouldn't be able to do shit about it because it'd have been fair play. and if we tried to do something, it would just make Iran look all the better. This assassination was the best thing to ever happen to Iran in the last 15 years.

Also another war in the Mideast is the only real limit to Trump's support. He pushes Iran too hard suddenly attack ads hit the airwaves marking the Repubs as warmongers and a sudden urge to convict Trump (He got impeached, remember?) will overcome at risk Republican Senators.Trump should have waited until after the election or at least until the Senate trial was out of the way if he wanted to start shit. This was ethically, strategically and politically idiotic.
 
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Jul 2009
5,883
Port St. Lucie
No problem in regard to Iran " our weaponry is bigger than theirs . Let them do their worse " that is why I am already bugged out to my survival retreat " . Ready to sit back and watch the show .
A small bullet kills just as well as a big bullet. If Iran's tank busters can blow up tanks, anti-ship missiles can sink ships, AA can shoot down plans and bullets can defeat body armor does it really matter if our stuff is better? Our tanks will still blow up, our ships will still sink, our plans will still get shot down and our soldiers will still die. and the Iranian public will back a defensive war, anti-war protests are already a thing in the US and our allies have preemptively noped the fuck out of this fight.
 
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Nov 2017
70
Australia
No problem in regard to Iran " our weaponry is bigger than theirs . Let them do their worse " that is why I am already bugged out to my survival retreat " . Ready to sit back and watch the show .
Will Iran fight a conventional war? Or will it be SAMs against commercial airliners, barricading the straits of Hormuz or Hezbollah attacking US installations in multiple ME countries?
 
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Jul 2009
5,883
Port St. Lucie
Will Iran fight a conventional war? Or will it be SAMs against commercial airliners, barricading the straits of Hormuz or Hezbollah attacking US installations in multiple ME countries?
All of the above if Iran is convinced that it'd be a 1v1 fight. American military power is projection. We can hit anywhere but actually BEING everywhere requires friendly governments. If nobody lets us set up bases than bases in occupied Iran and naval assets are the only way to establish staying power. Not a big deal if we can just march in and take over but against a modern nation with a hostile population it'd be hard to maintain. Add low support for war at home and Iran may well WIN such a war.

If the US can build up support byond SA, Iran would be less direct but it doesn't look like that's the case.

The worst case scenario would be all out war with Iran with Russia intervening and the US not backing down. That would start WW3 and that would end badly for all involved even if it remained conventional.
 
Dec 2019
64
U.S. Arkansas
Sure they are likely dum enough to do something . Then we will take out their oil refineries pluse 49 additional designated targets . Without help from other countries they will not be able to rebuild and will back to riding camels . Their biggest supporters now are the never Trump crowd here in the U.S. . Their hatred overrides any patriotism for the U.S. .
 
Jul 2009
5,883
Port St. Lucie
Sure they are likely dum enough to do something . Then we will take out their oil refineries pluse 49 additional designated targets . Without help from other countries they will not be able to rebuild and will back to riding camels . Their biggest supporters now are the never Trump crowd here in the U.S. . Their hatred overrides any patriotism for the U.S. .
Ya, they said that about Korea, Vietnam Afghanistan and Iraq. Neocons talk a good game, start wars then years, trillions of tax dollars and thousands of body bags later the only thing that changes is the value of Boeing stock.
 

Southern Dad

Forum Staff
Aug 2018
563
Shady Dale, Georgia
Iran will want to take some kind of action to save face. The problem is that Iran understands that President Trump isn't playing. He acted with restraint until there was American loss of life. If Iran does something that damages property, but doesn't kill anyone, I think Trump will not take further action and they will have saved face. An example would be to ram a speed boat into one of our Navy ships causing damage but no loss of life. (This is just an example.). They may set something up to look like it failed. Maybe a suicide bomber with a faulty vest.
Looks like I called this one dead on. Iran fired missiles, damaged a little property but didn’t kill anyone. Trump took no retaliation.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Jul 2009
5,883
Port St. Lucie
Looks like I called this one dead on. Iran fired missiles, damaged a little property but didn’t kill anyone. Trump took no retaliation.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Really a win-win. The US got rid of a major enemy for free while Iran gets a propaganda victory and sympathy points with the West, including the American public. There's still a mess to clean up in Iraq but a major war was avoided and everyone came away looking strong. History is rarely so kind to such events, this exact scenario started WW1 after all.
 
Nov 2017
70
Australia
Really a win-win. The US got rid of a major enemy for free while Iran gets a propaganda victory and sympathy points with the West, including the American public. There's still a mess to clean up in Iraq but a major war was avoided and everyone came away looking strong. History is rarely so kind to such events, this exact scenario started WW1 after all.
That’s interesting. How many wars have been started with an assassination?
(poor old Franz Ferdinand)
 
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