Coup in Turkey

Communications out of the country are being disrupted and most of the news is 2nd or 3rd hand but here is what I know:

The president has fled the country. He was on vacation on the Black Sea and attempted to establish himself in Istanbul but the army was faster. He's currently on a plane to Germany in hopes of establishing a government in exile.

The PM issued a frantic announcement of the military takeover on national TV before disappearing though he is still issuing statements online.

The army has declared martial law and seized control of Istanbul and Ankara.

The military leadership has been arrested.

The air force has sided with the coup. They've been flying close air support for the army in Ankara though they've not engaged loyalist forces.

The navy has remained loyal to the government.

The police have remained loyal to the government and there are reports of police vs. military fighting across Turkey, mostly in Ankara.

Parliament, including the opposition, has remained loyal to the president and PM and have joined the PM in his condemnation of the coup and call for peaceful resistance.

Downtown Istanbul has been shutdown as pro-government protesters have taken to the streets. The army initially resisted but backed down when they realized they couldn't stop the protests peacefully.

The junta has announced that they will respect all agreements made by the civilian government and that they will not be curtailing the civil rights of Turkish citizens.

The president has returned to Turkey and is landing at the airport (retaken by pro-government protesters) in Istanbul now.

The police are pushing back and starting to retake the streets in Istanbul with Turkish news networks (also back under government control) showing several soldiers being led away after being arrested.

The army and air force are still in control of Ankara.

The president is giving a definite speech in Istanbul, blaming political rivals (led by an exiled dissident living in Pennsylvania) for organizing the coup.

Istanbul almost entirely under government control.

Unconfirmed reports that the air force has bombed parliament.

The PKK has openly declared for the government.

tecoyah said:

Turkey is becoming an Islamic nation, those in opposition are being arrested or otherwise removed, Relations with western nations are being destroyed and rebuilt with Russia. The population is being stifled and the media eliminated...stay tuned.

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With control of the eastern Med at stake, I see war coming.

tecoyah said:

I see this scenario as very unlikely...though a very one sided and short lived battle is a possibility. No one is insane enough to attack the United States Naval forces...the outcome is far too obvious.

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Nobody would need to attack the USN for war to break out. Turkey defecting to Russia, shutting down (or even restricting) NATO naval forces access to the Black and Russia going all in in Syria would do it. NATO would HAVE to respond or give the eastern Med, the Mideast and Egypt over to Russian control. That's not a geopolitical move NATO would make, it'd be the beginning of the end for the alliance.

tecoyah said:

Again...extremely unlikely. Russia knowns not to screw with NATO as that definitely would lead to war. Russia also knows that such a war would end the country as we know it.

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The thing is I don't think Putin DOES know that. I'm sure he understands MAD (or the crazy bastard would have already nuked us) but I really do think he's deluded himself into thinking he can win a conventional war with NATO. Georgia and Ukraine were probing moves, not 1 off events.