European Union economy interactive graphic

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
I don't agree with you unfortunately, recession is already inevitable for that country at least two financial years.Also only a solid financial structure can provide the confidence to the markets. On the other hand, they can always work for encouraging investment to the country of course.

The market clearly doesn't like Greece despite the austerity, what makes you think it will work with Spain? While reducing the debt is important and the market for government debt wants that, they also want a sound economy. Cutting everything over night does not lead to a sounder economy in the short run and given the financing issues, the short run matters a whole lot right now.
 
Jun 2012
134
0
Turkey
The market clearly doesn't like Greece despite the austerity, what makes you think it will work with Spain? While reducing the debt is important and the market for government debt wants that, they also want a sound economy. Cutting everything over night does not lead to a sounder economy in the short run and given the financing issues, the short run matters a whole lot right now.

İt will work with Greece too, but you're going too fast. Just a few day ago their parliament has approved an austerity plan, after normalization of macro-economic indicators they will receive positive returns and that process will take years.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
İt will work with Greece too, but you're going too fast. Just a few day ago their parliament has approved an austerity plan, after normalization of macro-economic indicators they will receive positive returns and that process will take years.

The market doesn't care to wait that long. Look at bond yields- they needed to be bailed out more than once already to counter that.

Furthermore, there is the argument that if you are in downturn, cutting spending can severely hurt recovery- look at the fiscal cliff worries in the US right now as an example.
 
Jun 2012
134
0
Turkey
The market doesn't care to wait that long. Look at bond yields- they needed to be bailed out more than once already to counter that.

Furthermore, there is the argument that if you are in downturn, cutting spending can severely hurt recovery- look at the fiscal cliff worries in the US right now as an example.

We can not compare Greece with the US.This is a theoretical debate. And ıt may can be possıble for the US, cause US is a county that can provide its own capital alone with it s stronger private sector and important role in the world economy. Actually I don't know exactly what they suggest but thats what ı have understood.


But, when it comes to Greece, they haven't enaught equity to continue spending and they can't find credit to do this more, maybe with astronomical interest rates, but that's even hard and unsustainable. So, I don't understand that, maybe they suggest the EU to provide enaught resource for Greece's spending and find a solution in that way but that's crazy.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
We can not compare Greece with the US.This is a theoretical debate. And ıt may can be possıble for the US, cause US is a county that can provide its own capital alone with it s stronger private sector and important role in the world economy. Actually I don't know exactly what they suggest but thats what ı have understood.
I am not comparing the two. I am saying that your assumption that austerity in downturns is okay for recovery is potentially wrong. Greece's economy isn't doing great right now, just like America's isn't. Cutting huge amounts from the budget would only hurt that, especially for Greece, which can't even control monetary policy.


But, when it comes to Greece, they haven't enaught equity to continue spending and they can't find credit to do this more, maybe with astronomical interest rates, but that's even hard and unsustainable. So, I don't understand that, maybe they suggest the EU to provide enaught resource for Greece's spending and find a solution in that way but that's crazy.

You see the issue with the spending leading to debt, but you are overlooking the revenue aspect. If they cut spending too much, they might hurt revenue, which further worsens the debt problem. They might also hurt expectations, which also worsens the debt problem. The short-term market for government bonds wants stability, the long-term market for government bonds wants spending cuts and sustainability. If you don't provide that short-term stability, you probably can't get to that long-term sustainability.

In the case of Greece though, I personally believe it is game over already. They are sticking with it to save face so the rest don't go down the same road effectively ending the Euro as we know it. The big ones are Spain and Italy in this battle. And the same general issues I described apply.
 
Jun 2012
134
0
Turkey
Expenditures and investments are different items of the budget already, Spendings that producing surplus value is not at the same table with other expenditures. But as far as I read from news, they also have a lot of dead investments(state-owned and need to be closed orprivatized) that causing negative effects to the general budget. Anyway, that's why the Troika's technocrat team in Athens already, to analyze it in details.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
Expenditures and investments are different items of the budget already, Spendings that producing surplus value is not at the same table with other expenditures. But as far as I read from news, they also have a lot of dead investments(state-owned and need to be closed orprivatized) that causing negative effects to the general budget. Anyway, that's why the Troika's technocrat team in Athens already, to analyze it in details.

The thing is it can be hard to figure out what is and what is not a "dead investment". Implementing changes that get rid of just the dead investments is also very hard due to politics. And it is quite possible that if the public has certain beliefs about the dead investments (that they work), then getting rid of dead investments might hurt expectations which hurts recovery too.
 
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