G-20 pledges to cut currency devaluations

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
G-20 "pledged" to cut currency devaluations in attempts to get trade exchanges- something that has been escalating recently and brought up fears of currency wars. Unfortunately, the pledge doesn't really have many specifics and with QE2 around the corner for the US, it looks like it was just another lie for political reasons.

Thoughts?
 
Aug 2010
862
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China pegs their currency to hard currency, this problem can be addressed in some measure by permitting their currency to be subject to more market rules.

Currency traders will take advantage of government efforts to address the issue and governments will to. The temptations at some offset marginal gains is going to be there.

The US monatizing its debt is not going to stop as long as the administration is spending at the pace it is currently spending at (or not spending at all if you ask Paul Krugman.)

There comes a time when the train is going too fast to stop for the washed out bridge, why not speed up and see if we can jump the train over the alligators? (no, there are no sharks and there are no Fonzies)
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
China is really in a pickle here if the US continues to do what it is with the currency. Since they hold so much US debt, not only would unloading a substantial amount hurt the rest of their US debt, but even not buying further bonds to a certain extent could hurt their currently held debt. It depends how far they are willing to go before they decide cutting the losses might just be the best option.

The Fed of course has been and will probably continue picking up the slack. It should be noted however that a substantial amount of the devaluation is actually not fiscally driven by the administration (although a lot definitely is), but instead by the Fed itself through easy money- QE1 drove the Fed balance sheet to about ~$2 trillion (which was more than double it was previously I'm pretty sure- I forget the exact amount right now) and now they are talking about QE2 which will likely be $100 billion additions to the balance sheet per month for at least 5-6 months.

Of course the market and investors will take advantage- US yield changes recently certainly show it- no surprise there though.

For those of us who don't believe in inflating a currency to "stimulate" the economy, it seems to be a waiting game at this point as you said. For those like Krugman who believe this will work (and will almost certainly dig themselves into deeper and deeper holes every time a new round of QE or government spending fails) it is about sticking to their failing ideology either because they really believe the nonsense or worse, because they don't want to seem stupid by admitting they were wrong and their life's work was based on fraudulent ideas.
 
Aug 2010
862
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China is in a weird spot with so much of our debt. They have great interest in our economy succeeding so we can pay off the bonds.

Krugman for some reason believes that Japan's decade of recession and full blown keynsian spending which only accomplished pushing their national debt to nearly 200% of GDP will for some as yet unknown reason work to stimulate our economy.

He's got toys in the attic
 
Nov 2010
4
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That will afect the customer mainly, we are gonna have to pay a lot more for computers, toys, electronics etc.....
 
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