Iranian Election

omej · Jun 12, 2009

As you may have heard, today is Irans presidential election. Both incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Moussavi are claiming victory.

About 3/4 of the votes have been counted and Mahmoud has a sizable lead (66/34).

Of course this is if the election was done fairly, it's really hard to tell without any international election monitors. Mir really had a lot of young support, his rally's were comparable to Obama's. Both tapped the same audiences and had the same enthusiasm.

myp · Jun 12, 2009

Moussavi is currently claiming that he is winning and that Ahmadinejad is taking part in election fraud. It is certainly not out of the question and looking at Ahmadinejad's policies, I would certainly not put it beneath him.

It is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks- I have heard some commentators say that revolution is even likely if Moussavi doesn't win due to his ardent supporters.

DodgeFB · Jun 13, 2009

myp said:
Moussavi is currently claiming that he is winning and that Ahmadinejad is taking part in election fraud. It is certainly not out of the question and looking at Ahmadinejad's policies, I would certainly not put it beneath him.

It is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks- I have heard some commentators say that revolution is even likely if Moussavi doesn't win due to his ardent supporters.

Looks like Ahmadinejad may have more to worry about at home than stirring up trouble around the world.

DodgeFB · Jun 13, 2009

omeythehomie said:
As you may have heard, today is Irans presidential election. Both incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Mir Hossein Moussavi are claiming victory.

About 3/4 of the votes have been counted and Mahmoud has a sizable lead (66/34).

Of course this is if the election was done fairly, it's really hard to tell without any international election monitors. Mir really had a lot of young support, his rally's were comparable to Obama's. Both tapped the same audiences and had the same enthusiasm.

Can the world stand another Obama?

DodgeFB · Jun 13, 2009

Just saw this!

Iran declares Ahmadinejad winner of presidential election

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) ? Iran's government says incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the winner of the election with a landslide 62.63 percent of the vote. The top opposition contender Mir Hossein Mousavi takes only 33.75 percent of vote in a result disputed by his supporters.
Anti-riot police guarded the offices overseeing Iran's disputed elections Saturday with the count pointing to a landslide victory by Ahmadinejad and his opponent denouncing the results as "treason" and threatening a challenge.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-06-13-iran-vote-saturday_N.htm?csp=34

myp · Jun 13, 2009

DodgeFB said:
Can the world stand another Obama?

I think the comparison to Obama is more in terms of his following and charisma- not so much the policies. Iran is in a very different place than America and his policies apply to very different things. Compared to Ahmadinejad he is a lot better though, especially because he is more capitalist and for things like opening up the oil market in Iran once more. He would be good for Iran's economy (which Ahmadinejad basically destroyed with regulations- there is currently 35% unemployment) as well as the world oil market because if Iran starting exporting that to the Western nations, we would see immediate drops in the price of oil which would certainly be a plus in getting out of recession. As for Ahmadinejad winning- that was expected, but Moussavi and his following are still fighting and claiming that the election was rigged- which certainly is possible.

omej · Jun 13, 2009

myp said:
I think the comparison to Obama is more in terms of his following and charisma- not so much the policies. Iran is in a very different place than America and his policies apply to very different things. Compared to Ahmadinejad he is a lot better though, especially because he is more capitalist and for things like opening up the oil market in Iran once more. He would be good for Iran's economy (which Ahmadinejad basically destroyed with regulations- there is currently 35% unemployment) as well as the world oil market because if Iran starting exporting that to the Western nations, we would see immediate drops in the price of oil which would certainly be a plus in getting out of recession. As for Ahmadinejad winning- that was expected, but Moussavi and his following are still fighting and claiming that the election was rigged- which certainly is possible.

Not only that, he has real prospects for opening up Iranian relations with the west. He is a far better candidate for Israeli peace talks (pretty much anybody beats Mahmoud here). While he has no plans to stop nuclear progress, perhaps he will at least allow UN inspectors or some kind of regulation there.

This election really gave Iran a chance at normal diplomatic relations. Even the ayatollah isn't as hardlined (or as stupid) as Mamoud is.

myp · Jun 15, 2009

Well, the protests continued today, with large masses of people gathered in Tehran. Most of the protest was peaceful, although there have been reports of some gunfire for a little bit. Mousavi actually made a public appearance today and just recently said that he will "pay any cost" to contest the election results. He was a pessimistic on whether it would work though, saying he had little hope the challenge would succeed. He is trying though and his supporters are right there with him, so his bearishness doesn't necessarily mean he won't succeed. Iran has had a recent history of shutting down such reformers, but with what seems like the whole world behind them, Mousavi and his followers might actually succeed this time.

omej · Jun 18, 2009

Ahmadinejad's supporters know no bounds. The Basji are basically the most hardcore of them, a paramilitary militia that take their orders from the Revolutionary Guard. Most of the violence and all of the deaths are their doing. They beat peacefully protesting men and women all the same.

It's unbelievable how savage they are. I really hope Ahmadinejad and hopefully the Ayatollah himself are replaced.

omej · Jun 21, 2009

Curious: I meant to make a new post but I somehow edited your post instead of making a new one. As a result, your original post was lost. Sorry for that idiotic mistake.

Twitter as an agent for political freedom and freedom of speech! Who'd 'a thunk it?

I hadn't even heard of twitter until the election and it's amazing how people use it in so many ways. Those short one line sentences are used to coordinate protests in Iran, used by politicians, it's really amazing how people are able to use it as a medium to exchange information.

Did anybody here about Neda? She is being tweeted about by many people. It's a terrible story, she went to protest and the savage Basiji militia killed her.

Here's her story.
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/21/iran.woman.twitter/index.html

CNN surprisingly aired the entire video on their news channel. I wish I hadn't seen it but if anybody wants to, here it is.

NOTE: Video is graphic and disturbing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o21k4AI2KSE

Her bravery was incredible, RIP Neda.

pingpong12 · Jun 21, 2009

OMG, there are no bounds to the evil and heartlessness of the current regime. If the iranian army turns on the internal police force, mahmoud better hope he has an exit out of the country. This is unbelievable.

curious · Jun 22, 2009

Unfortunately, one of the videos was from a home invasion believed to have been conducted by Mousavi's militia.

People are not demonstrating because of who won, but because they don't trust the process. They believe Iranian law has not been followed. They aren't demonstrating for the overthrow of the government, just for it to follow its own laws.

The lesson here: If you want to rig an election, you make sure your numbers look believable.

GekiDan · Jun 22, 2009

I just saw it in the news. There are many people who died because of these rallies.
Do you think the winner really cheated?

BTW, what's the mode of election there? Manual or computerized?

deanhills · Jun 23, 2009

GekiDan said:
I just saw it in the news. There are many people who died because of these rallies.
Do you think the winner really cheated?

BTW, what's the mode of election there? Manual or computerized?

They have always cheated, right from the beginning. Perhaps the people are becoming less tolerant of the pretense of an election when their votes aren't counted as they should be counted. Could also be that there is a power struggle on the go within the Iranian Government, and the people in the street are used to weaken the leaders who are in power, so as to get rid of them.

DodgeFB · Jun 23, 2009

You know Saddam Hussain once got 100% of the vote.

deanhills · Jun 24, 2009

DodgeFB said:
Just saw this!

Iran declares Ahmadinejad winner of presidential election

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) ? Iran's government says incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is the winner of the election with a landslide 62.63 percent of the vote. The top opposition contender Mir Hossein Mousavi takes only 33.75 percent of vote in a result disputed by his supporters.
Anti-riot police guarded the offices overseeing Iran's disputed elections Saturday with the count pointing to a landslide victory by Ahmadinejad and his opponent denouncing the results as "treason" and threatening a challenge.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2009-06-13-iran-vote-saturday_N.htm?csp=34

Wonder what is going to happen to the 33%? No doubt they will be harrassed, and I'm certain the media will be sorted out with tough regulations.

curious · Jun 25, 2009

This is part of a pattern repressive regimes follow. They loosen up, let people think that they are getting more freedom. Then they crack down. The purpose of loosening up is to identify those who might emerge as leaders if the reforms are real. Once they know who they are, there is a crackdown. That's what is happening here, but I think maybe they got more than they bargained for.

GekiDan · Jun 25, 2009

DodgeFB said:
You know Saddam Hussain once got 100% of the vote.

Really...?
That is the most unbelievable thing that I have heard in my whole life.

DodgeFB · Jun 25, 2009

GekiDan said:
Really...?
That is the most unbelievable thing that I have heard in my whole life.

That was the announcement at the time. You don't think having soldiers looking over their shoulder while voting had anything to do with it do you? Or maybe he lied? Would he lie to his peeps?

deanhills · Jun 28, 2009

curious said:
This is part of a pattern repressive regimes follow. They loosen up, let people think that they are getting more freedom. Then they crack down. The purpose of loosening up is to identify those who might emerge as leaders if the reforms are real. Once they know who they are, there is a crackdown. That's what is happening here, but I think maybe they got more than they bargained for.

This is so well said Curious. Never thought about it this way, but it is totally spot on. Mugabe in Zimbabwe has done that as well.

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