Israeli-Palestinian peace has taken a leap forward.

Jul 2009
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Port St. Lucie
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/intern...ng_to_divide_jerusalem_uY6jwIbtE2xfbjKf9Kx00K

Israel has agreed to, of all things, partition Jerusalem. :eek: I must say, I wasn't expecting this.

Thoughts? Israeli refusal to partition the city was the only thing that killed the peace talks in 2000. This obstacle being eliminated has made peace less then a pipe dream and, if this kind of thinking continues, even likely. Hamas on the other hand still needs to be handled.
 
Aug 2010
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Until the Palestinians recognize the right of Israel to exist there will be no peace.

Hamas' defining charter pledges them to the destruction of Israel.

I do not believe that Hamas will change their tune. I do not believe that Palestinians can control Hamas.
 
Jul 2009
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Port St. Lucie
Until the Palestinians recognize the right of Israel to exist there will be no peace.

Hamas' defining charter pledges them to the destruction of Israel.

I do not believe that Hamas will change their tune. I do not believe that Palestinians can control Hamas.

I disagree. Once the PA has become the PG as it were while Hamas continues to get bombed by Israel they'll be discredited. Remember, Gaza isn't full of radicals, it's filled with frustrated angry people that think Hamas is on their side. Disprove this and they lose support.
 
Aug 2010
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Hamas took Gaza from Fatah in a civil war. They control Gaza through violence. The Palestinians as much as they hate Hamas hate Israelis more. You're not going to see a cowed population rise up, collarorate with Israel and knock out Hamas. Even if the ordinary Gaza Palestinian did so they'd be met with interference by any number of foreign governments in the region.
 
Jul 2009
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Port St. Lucie
Hamas took Gaza from Fatah in a civil war. They control Gaza through violence. The Palestinians as much as they hate Hamas hate Israelis more. You're not going to see a cowed population rise up, collarorate with Israel and knock out Hamas. Even if the ordinary Gaza Palestinian did so they'd be met with interference by any number of foreign governments in the region.

It's in their intrest to see Gaza at peace. War only harms the economy and fules religous terrorism, something nationalist gov't's with growing economies don't want to see.
 
Aug 2010
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It's in their intrest to see Gaza at peace. War only harms the economy and fules religous terrorism, something nationalist gov't's with growing economies don't want to see.

I think a rational a for would take that view.

There is little evidence that Hamas is rational.
 
Jul 2009
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I think a rational a for would take that view.

There is little evidence that Hamas is rational.

As Hamas is the religious terrorism I'm warning about, it should be clear I'm not talking about them. :p I'm think of nationalist gov't's, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, ect.
 
Aug 2010
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As Hamas is the religious terrorism I'm warning about, it should be clear I'm not talking about them. :p I'm think of nationalist gov't's, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, ect.

And they haven't been the one's funneling weapons into Gaza. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah on the other hand have. Hamas and Hezbollah are arming themselves for another proxy war and Iran will certainly get them going early if they believe an Israeli airt strike is imminent and will clearly do so in response to one.

Optimism is a good thing but I see little reason for it.
 
Jul 2009
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And they haven't been the one's funneling weapons into Gaza. Syria, Iran and Hezbollah on the other hand have. Hamas and Hezbollah are arming themselves for another proxy war and Iran will certainly get them going early if they believe an Israeli airt strike is imminent and will clearly do so in response to one.

Optimism is a good thing but I see little reason for it.

Hamas will lose popular support with a PA victory, send in the UN to protect the locals and force Hamas to hold elections or face (UN) military action. Hezbollah and Iran is another issue entirely.
 
Aug 2010
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But the UN has been in the region for decades. Why should there be reason for a reversal from all the powers aligned against Israel?

The Palestinians are pawns that are driven by those powers not the drivers. Their elections are unlikely to be fair or yield results that will drive Hamas from power. They do not respond to votes. They took Gaza inspite of the vote for Fatah.

I would love to have your optimism, believe me I would but I see no evidence that Israel's willingness to compromise will be regarded as anything other than a sign that they are weak by those with whom Israel seeks this compromise.

If I had to guess I'd offer that Israel was willing to put everything on the table to show the world how far they'd go for peace. When it is rejected they'll feel troubled little in imposing a peace of their choosing.
 
Jul 2009
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Port St. Lucie
But the UN has been in the region for decades. Why should there be reason for a reversal from all the powers aligned against Israel?

The Palestinians are pawns that are driven by those powers not the drivers. Their elections are unlikely to be fair or yield results that will drive Hamas from power. They do not respond to votes. They took Gaza inspite of the vote for Fatah.

I would love to have your optimism, believe me I would but I see no evidence that Israel's willingness to compromise will be regarded as anything other than a sign that they are weak by those with whom Israel seeks this compromise.

If I had to guess I'd offer that Israel was willing to put everything on the table to show the world how far they'd go for peace. When it is rejected they'll feel troubled little in imposing a peace of their choosing.

Maybe, I've come across something that may explain Israeli hard-lining though. Israel is run by hard-liners because so many Israelis are actually Soviets that like a "Strongman Gov't". Would explain alot.
 
Aug 2010
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How about Israel is run by hard-liners because they have a state the size of Connecticut and Rhose Island. They are surrounded by states that are at best not overtly hostile in some cases and overtly in others. Several internationally recognized terror organizations have pledged themselves to the destruction of Israel. Oh, and they aer out numbered tens of thousands to one? I think that would explain a lot more than some silliness about Soviets.
 
Jul 2009
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How about Israel is run by hard-liners because they have a state the size of Connecticut and Rhose Island. They are surrounded by states that are at best not overtly hostile in some cases and overtly in others. Several internationally recognized terror organizations have pledged themselves to the destruction of Israel. Oh, and they aer out numbered tens of thousands to one? I think that would explain a lot more than some silliness about Soviets.

Israel was engaged by 3 major Arab military powers simultaneously and with every Arab power backing them. The war ended in less then a week with an Israeli victory and Israel conquering Palestine, the Gordon Hights and the Sinai Peninsula. Of the 3 nations, 2 of them (Egypt and Jordan) are now Israeli allies. Every Arab power except Syria is now a US ally. Syria remains opposed to Israel but is warming to the US. Only the Turks and Persians match the Jews in military power today, nether share a border with Israel and nether can attack without triggering a global free-for-all war (too many contradictory alliance obligations, none of which can be ignored for strategic reasons) that would in all likelihood end in a nuclear holocaust if it dragged on for more then a few years and would end badly regardless.

Needless to say, the Israelis can cry all they want but the fact remains, anyone that thinks they're weak and attacks will eat a cruse missile. The hardline act is just that, an act. Israel is unconquerable barring ether a total withdraw of US support (and with said support being given to the Arabs) or the previously mentioned free-for-all war.
 
Aug 2010
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Israel was engaged by 3 major Arab military powers simultaneously and with every Arab power backing them. The war ended in less then a week with an Israeli victory and Israel conquering Palestine, the Gordon Hights and the Sinai Peninsula. Of the 3 nations, 2 of them (Egypt and Jordan) are now Israeli allies.

Before you were born.

Before Iran was close to having its own nukes and probably able to get them from NK.

Before the Soviet Union collapsed.

etc etc etc

You need to take into account that the Arab world that attacked them recognized that a frontal assault would fail. That's why they engage through proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. That's why they have engaged in decades of a propaganda war centered in the UN where the bulk of resolutions passed have been resolutions condemning Israel.

Hezbollah engaged Israel directly recently. This was a probing engagement. All Hebollah needed to do was fight to a stalemate to regard it as a victory. Now they have seen how Israel will respond and in what measure. Hezbollah is now rearming itself and digging in more deeply in areas that were successfully held and abandoning ideas that failed.

Hamas continues to be Hamas.

Egypt and Jordan are not allies of Israel.

Egypt did "normalized" relations with Israel in the Carter administration. What that meant is that they no longer actively sought the destruction of Israel though they are regarded as an enemy. There is nothing close to a friendly relationship between the two. Theyt never established any meaningful diplomatic ties after 1979 and signed the Camp David Accords largely to receive very generous American aid.

Jordan has signed a peace treaty and they have acted to protect each other through intelligence and threats to possible agressors. They are not allied.



Every Arab power except Syria is now a US ally.

And antagonistic toward Israel (excepting Jordan). Many of those states harbor terror organizations we are fighting. That these states cannot rid themselves of these terrorsist organizations is fairly good evidence that their alliance w/the US means nothing to Israel or worse.

Syria remains opposed to Israel but is warming to the US.

They are the conduit for Hezbollah in Lebanon from Iran. This warming is meaningless (and I see no evidence of it)

Only the Turks and Persians match the Jews in military power today, nether share a border with Israel and nether can attack without triggering a global free-for-all war

Turkey is slouching towards fundamentalism. The military has traditionally stepped in to prevent a trend toward sectarianism. Their position with regard to Gaza has challanged that position.

Iran, Iran doesn't give a shit if they start a global free-for-all. Or rather, the guys with their hands on the things that go BOOM!!! don't give a shit.

(too many contradictory alliance obligations, none of which can be ignored for strategic reasons) that would in all likelihood end in a nuclear holocaust if it dragged on for more then a few years and would end badly regardless.

lol... Iran doesn't care. Entangling alliances and a state pushed over the brink? See Sarajevo 1914.

Needless to say, the Israelis can cry all they want but the fact remains, anyone that thinks they're weak and attacks will eat a cruse missile. The hardline act is just that, an act. Israel is unconquerable barring ether a total withdraw of US support (and with said support being given to the Arabs) or the previously mentioned free-for-all war.

No one thinks they are weak. See above regarding indirect attacks, propaganda and proxy wars. They think Israel is out manned ten thousand to one. Israel cannot fight a long war. Hezbollah demonstrated that non-state actor military force could fight Israel to a stand-off. The longer Israel is engaged the weaker it will become the less any of those American allies will work against terror groups with lots of grass roots support who are fighting Israel and the sooner they'll join in to push Israel into the sea. Obama isn't sending the marines to rescue Israel. He's been antagonistic since day one.
 
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Sep 2010
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Optimism aside, I think by now we've seen what that "leap" forward was all about.
If the Palestinians reject another Israeli offer, this leap will be the last for a long time.
 
Aug 2010
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Hamas runs Gaza.

Hamas is committed to the destruction of Israel not peaceful coexistence.

They can stop terror attacks whenever they like. Israel would follow. Israel has always offered land for peace. The land offered has never been acceptable.... see previous one setence paragraph.
 
Sep 2010
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Hamas runs Gaza.

Hamas is committed to the destruction of Israel not peaceful coexistence.

They can stop terror attacks whenever they like. Israel would follow. Israel has always offered land for peace. The land offered has never been acceptable.... see previous one setence paragraph.

Well, that makes whatever i had to say on the issue pretty redundant.
As usual, obtuseobserver demonstrates his incredible skill at summing thing up :)
Thumbs up.
 
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