Scaring Voters into Mail-In Increases Election Uncertainty
Due to the political stoking of fears of contracting COVID-19, a massive push has been made, mostly by the left, to encourage voting by mail. This significantly alters the calculus on Election Day and completely upends the post-election period.
Most states and local election officials aren’t prepared to process, validate, and count large numbers of mail-in ballots. In six swing states (totaling 74 Electoral College votes)—Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — no mail-in ballots may be counted before Election Day.
Since reports indicate a far greater interest in voting by mail for Democrats than Republicans, it’s likely that President Trump will be winning these states by large margins on Election Day, only to see that margin shrink in the days and weeks after Election Day. Indeed, that is precisely the narrative being crafted by leading organs of the mainstream media.
Further, voting by mail doesn’t result in the same success rate as does voting in person. The Washington Post reported that some 534,000 ballots were rejected during the 2020 primaries, either because they arrived late, the voter’s signature appeared invalid, or other failures. A separate analysis published in the
Post found that as many as 4.9 percent of mail-in ballots fail to result in a counted vote. Depending on the state and the share of the vote by mail for each major party, the 1 in 20 ballots that fail to convert into a vote could be determinative.
Uncertainty Can Fuel More Rioting
Adding uncertainty to what is a routine exercise in vote counting (the 2000 contest in Florida being an exception) is this year’s urban unrest. An election night featuring competing claims of victory, confusion, and early calls by the media, only to be reversed on the receipt of newer data, may lead to post-election violence unlike any seen in more than 150 years.
Purportedly aiming to make sense of this fraught election year, in early August, the Transition Integrity Project (TIP) released a report suggesting that President Donald Trump would not likely leave office without an unprecedented struggle. The TIP, a self-proclaimed “bipartisan” group of some 100 people, was entirely composed of those firmly opposed to President Trump.
Their purpose wasn’t so much gaming out plausible post-election scenarios as to generate breathless propaganda suggesting that no matter the outcome, President Trump would refuse to leave the White House on Jan. 20, 2021, Inauguration Day. He flatly contradicted such propaganda in his NBC town hall last week, saying that he wants the election process to be fair and that he will abide by verified election results.
TIP’s effort marks a lost opportunity, one that the Claremont Institute in partnership with the Texas Public Policy Foundation (TPPF) sought to remedy with our own simulation of election night and what might be a highly charged and competitive aftermath — a contest after the contest.
For the task, Claremont and TPPF assembled a team of 35 people, and over the course of seven days, these constitutional scholars, along with experts in election law, foreign affairs, law enforcement, and media, decided how they would react to fast-moving events. The operation was coordinated by a retired military officer experienced in running hundreds of wargames.
Risks this year include no certain presidential results on election night, and foreign disinformation, fake news, and big-tech censorship.
thefederalist.com