To be clear this scenario is unlikely. That being said it IS plausible so allow me to explain the insanity that may follow after the presidential election (for real) is held.
10 Electors (11 if you count the Elector that quit in protest) have openly declared themselves unfaithful (so far) while many others grumble as Trump doesn't separate himself from business interests, skips intel briefings and builds a cabinet that makes it look like America just had a Russian backed coup rather than an election. In the unlikely event that the looming EC rebellion keeps Trump under 270, the election will go to the House (Clinton with both Dem and Repub Electors opposing her won't benefit from this to get over 270 herself). The House HATES Trump and will vote for another Repub (whoever the rebels vote for, the House can only chose from the top 3 EC candidates). That being said some WILL vote for Trump while the Dems vote for Clinton. That means no President come Inauguration Day.
Next up we have the VP. Normally in this situation the EC's choice for VP would, as 2nd in the line of succession, assume the office. The problem is Pence is universally hated, his general disdain rivaled only by Cruz. His political career looked to be over at the end of his governorship and he hitched his wagon to Trump in a Hail Mary move to save his career. If the EC dumps Trump there is no way in hell they'll go for Pence. That sends the vote to the Senate. They'll have no use for Pence and being majority Repub won't back Kaine in sufficient numbers to confirm him. Normally the Senate can't be tied however the Senate may simply avoid holding a vote and there will also be whoever the EC rebels voted for making it a 3 way race same as the House if they do vote.
With no President or VP we turn to the current government and follow the line of succession, this is where the Constitutional crisis potentially happens. Both Biden and Ryan have equal claims to the Presidency at this point. Biden's claim comes, for obvious reasons, from being VP. The problem arises from the fact that the VP traditionally end their term with the outgoing President (assuming impeachment, resignation or death aren't involved). That being said this is ONLY tradition not law. Despite the title the VP isn't actually associated with the Presidency, they are in fact the Prime Minister appointed by the sitting president but not elected (save the EC's involvement during the presidential election) instead being confirmed by the Senate like every other Cabinet position. That being said such a long standing and never violated tradition could be argued to be common law. With this argument Bieden is indeed done when Obama is and Rayn as Speaker takes over. If Ryan accepts Biden or Biden steps down, crisis averted and a precedent set if the scenario ever again plays out with whoever is in charge taking over for good in March if Congress doesn't make a choice by then. If there is a power struggle, crisis ensues, the government breaks down as nobody knows who to take orders from and public outrage at the collapse of American Democracy coupled with a leaderless military leads to civil unrest and possibly war.
12/19/16 may well be the last day that America exists in any real way. If so my our departure be as mostly bloodless and mildly annoying as the Soviet Union's.
10 Electors (11 if you count the Elector that quit in protest) have openly declared themselves unfaithful (so far) while many others grumble as Trump doesn't separate himself from business interests, skips intel briefings and builds a cabinet that makes it look like America just had a Russian backed coup rather than an election. In the unlikely event that the looming EC rebellion keeps Trump under 270, the election will go to the House (Clinton with both Dem and Repub Electors opposing her won't benefit from this to get over 270 herself). The House HATES Trump and will vote for another Repub (whoever the rebels vote for, the House can only chose from the top 3 EC candidates). That being said some WILL vote for Trump while the Dems vote for Clinton. That means no President come Inauguration Day.
Next up we have the VP. Normally in this situation the EC's choice for VP would, as 2nd in the line of succession, assume the office. The problem is Pence is universally hated, his general disdain rivaled only by Cruz. His political career looked to be over at the end of his governorship and he hitched his wagon to Trump in a Hail Mary move to save his career. If the EC dumps Trump there is no way in hell they'll go for Pence. That sends the vote to the Senate. They'll have no use for Pence and being majority Repub won't back Kaine in sufficient numbers to confirm him. Normally the Senate can't be tied however the Senate may simply avoid holding a vote and there will also be whoever the EC rebels voted for making it a 3 way race same as the House if they do vote.
With no President or VP we turn to the current government and follow the line of succession, this is where the Constitutional crisis potentially happens. Both Biden and Ryan have equal claims to the Presidency at this point. Biden's claim comes, for obvious reasons, from being VP. The problem arises from the fact that the VP traditionally end their term with the outgoing President (assuming impeachment, resignation or death aren't involved). That being said this is ONLY tradition not law. Despite the title the VP isn't actually associated with the Presidency, they are in fact the Prime Minister appointed by the sitting president but not elected (save the EC's involvement during the presidential election) instead being confirmed by the Senate like every other Cabinet position. That being said such a long standing and never violated tradition could be argued to be common law. With this argument Bieden is indeed done when Obama is and Rayn as Speaker takes over. If Ryan accepts Biden or Biden steps down, crisis averted and a precedent set if the scenario ever again plays out with whoever is in charge taking over for good in March if Congress doesn't make a choice by then. If there is a power struggle, crisis ensues, the government breaks down as nobody knows who to take orders from and public outrage at the collapse of American Democracy coupled with a leaderless military leads to civil unrest and possibly war.
12/19/16 may well be the last day that America exists in any real way. If so my our departure be as mostly bloodless and mildly annoying as the Soviet Union's.
