Why doesn't the market have confidence in Obama?

Mar 2009
2,188
2
It's the socialist coutnries, the Sweden's and the Norway's, that are going to come out ahead in all of this, because they won't have done as much financial damage to their workers. And the ones we don't think of as socialist, such as Switzerland and Germany, who also have strong economic cushions.
If they could be independent of Europe and the world, possibly this would be the case, but unfortunately they are completely dependent, so will suffer in the same way. Take for example the recent event of Swiss Banks being forced to give Governments outside Switzerland access to the names of their clients. World has become too small for Switzerland to still carry on as it has before.
 
Mar 2009
2,751
6
Undisclosed
I never had any confidence in this president. I don't trust him in any way. The last eight years may have been bad. But I think we are in for a real rough patch with this dude.:confused::(

We had a new governor jammed down our throat last time. And he is cutting programs and jacking up taxes too. But he has plenty of money for feel good things. If it "feels good" throw more money at it.

So we are losing confidence in ever having anything around here.:(
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
It took two to tango on this one.
While I agree that both did play a role in this, one thing that needs to be understood is that the market bubble caused by the CDOs was natural and it would've happened no matter how much regulation you had, so long as there was still a market-based economy system. This is because, as with any new product, overconfidence is always apparent at first as people get excited over the prospect of a new way to make money- examples of this are seen throughout the course of history from the invention of cars and planes (at first there were hundreds of companies selling both [respectively], until competition obviously cut it down to the handful we have today) to the tech bubble.

The government only made it worse by propping up the bad parts of the market that should have failed and by encouraging bad behavior. The low rates and Fannie and Freddie backing mortgages both also made the bubble bigger. Without all of this intervention, the bubble would've been a lot smaller and the consequences also a lot better.

As far as the pharmacy example goes, that's not a very good argument. We've seen what happens in an unregulated market. It works in theory, but theory doesn't work in practice. People don't have perfect information. Just look at all the scandals that took place in the late 1800s and early 1900s. You had tons of snake oil salesmen and people selling rotting meat. The market should have been able to fix this, but it just didn't know. Even with all of our regulation and information efforts, you still have people buying worthless medicine based on flashy advertising. We either need to guarantee perfect information for all consumers (through an unprecedented regulatory program) or have government laws forcing good behavior.
In today's age of information a lot of people do know that they shouldn't be eating rotten meat or be buying fishy-looking pills. If they still want to buy it, it is their choice to do so. Anyway, you are getting more on the topic of the FDA instead of our original point of discussion which was around drugs. With all of these regulations the government only drives up drug prices and in the end a lot of people can't even afford them.

It's the socialist coutnries, the Sweden's and the Norway's, that are going to come out ahead in all of this, because they won't have done as much financial damage to their workers. And the ones we don't think of as socialist, such as Switzerland and Germany, who also have strong economic cushions.
They aren't going to come out ahead. I don't know where you read that or how you came up with it, but it just isn't true. The countries that will come out with the least damage are going to be China and India, both which weren't so entangled in the American mortgage market and both who have great/growing manufacturing sectors.
 
Jan 2009
639
5
The MBS bubble wouldn't have been any worse than the tech bubble if credit default swaps were properly regulated. It just got bad because they were "riskless" assets and everyone wanted to jump on the bandwagon. If everyone didn't over-leverage themselves, then it wouldn't have been a huge problem.

The problem with your pharmacy thing is that people always knew not to eat rotten meat or buy bad drugs. The problem is that proper advertising or dishonest production clouds their judgement.

FDA regulation is the only thing that keeps these drugs safe. It may up the cost, but it is the cost of granting higher levels of information. Everyone would be lying and saying whatever they wanted about their drugs. They still try to do it now, even with the threat of serious litigation. Just look at all the alternative medicines that aren't regulated too. Having the FDA around ensures that there is always a fairly impartial observer to watch out for the consumer.

The costs also aren't that much either. They should really be doing the clinical trials anyway. How else will they spot side effects or study the potential cures?

I was just referencing it because you brough it up last page.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
The MBS bubble wouldn't have been any worse than the tech bubble if credit default swaps were properly regulated. It just got bad because they were "riskless" assets and everyone wanted to jump on the bandwagon. If everyone didn't over-leverage themselves, then it wouldn't have been a huge problem.
Well the SEC and Federal Reserve failed to see anything wrong happening- there is your big government efficiency for you. The government needs to focus more on oversight and making institutions like the SEC more efficient instead of regulating because oversight does not hurt the markets- regulation does. As for the MBS bubble, the government backed mortgages, so more mortgages were made and that made the bubble bigger.

The problem with your pharmacy thing is that people always knew not to eat rotten meat or buy bad drugs. The problem is that proper advertising or dishonest production clouds their judgement.
Well, if they get duped into buying it then that is their fault. You should have the knowledge not to eat rotten meat. Even with the FDA and things, people still get food poisoning because of things like eating bad meat. At the end of the day I believe it is one's personal responsibilty to look out for themselves, not the government's.

FDA regulation is the only thing that keeps these drugs safe. It may up the cost, but it is the cost of granting higher levels of information. Everyone would be lying and saying whatever they wanted about their drugs. They still try to do it now, even with the threat of serious litigation. Just look at all the alternative medicines that aren't regulated too. Having the FDA around ensures that there is always a fairly impartial observer to watch out for the consumer.
I did not make a case against the FDA, although I think the system does need to be restructured and improved. You are mixing up the FDA with the regulations I was referring to, which are things like taxes and price controls on drugs as well as excessive checks.

The costs also aren't that much either. They should really be doing the clinical trials anyway. How else will they spot side effects or study the potential cures?
Again, I am referring more to the corporate regulations than the actual health ones. Even in the health ones though, some programs are very inefficient and unnecessary.
 
Jan 2009
639
5
It wasn't the SEC or the FED that supported the deregulation. It was Republican congressmen and Bill Clinton (for not vetoing it). The SEC could use an overhaul though. Missing the Madoff thing (after a number of apparent tips) has shown their problems.

The government didn't really back the mortgage. If you really look at AIG's policy with their credit default swaps, then they were basically just gambling on the market not collapsing in the future. It was a basic gamble and one that would have made ridiculous amounts of money if they had called it right. They didn't. The ones who invested in MBS did so since they always assumed that they could cover temporary losses in liquid cash with loans. That's why they were panicking when the market froze and the interbank rate hit 5%.

Quick note on bad meat, just look at Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle". People just didn't know it was going on, because the information wasn't available. We need oversight to spot these things on important fields.

Sorry. I think I just got on the wrong train of thought with the FDA thing though. The first mention regarded the problems of getting rid of the regulators. That set me off in anti-anarcho-capitalist mode. You don't seem to be arguing that :eek:. Whoops. I disagree and personally think that the FDA needs more power to regulate meat...but that is another thread entirely and one I'd need to do new research on, especially for medical testing :eek:
 
Mar 2009
422
4
Florida, USA
They aren't going to come out ahead. I don't know where you read that or how you came up with it, but it just isn't true.

It's my opinion. When an American loses a job, they get next to nothing in unemployment. Spending ends, and people start worrying about how to pay the mortgage or the rent. When the same thing happens to a European, spending slows. A European, in general, doesn't have to worry about the mortgage, or the rent, or paying for their medical care. Consequently, there isn't the same domino effect, and any impact is slower.

Now at the end of all this, China and India's economies might look good on paper, and the US might look better than Europe. But it is not supposed to be about getting the economy healthy. It's supposed to be about doing it with the least damage to the people. Ours people will have been far more severely damaged than Europe's, and India and China have incredibly damaged people already.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
It wasn't the SEC or the FED that supported the deregulation. It was Republican congressmen and Bill Clinton (for not vetoing it). The SEC could use an overhaul though. Missing the Madoff thing (after a number of apparent tips) has shown their problems.
What deregulation are you referring to? Please give me examples. Even before this "deregulation" the Fed and SEC were not competent at doing what they were supposed to do, so you can't really say deregulation made them miss this. The SEC does need to be overhauled and a new system needs to be set up for fraud monitoring. Either that, or end the SEC and start a better system of fraud oversight. The Federal Reserve on the other hand doesn't need to be overhauled, it just needs to be shut down. It has not helped this country in any way since its creation in 1913. In fact, it has made things worse with the bubbles and distortions.

The government didn't really back the mortgage. If you really look at AIG's policy with their credit default swaps, then they were basically just gambling on the market not collapsing in the future. It was a basic gamble and one that would have made ridiculous amounts of money if they had called it right. They didn't. The ones who invested in MBS did so since they always assumed that they could cover temporary losses in liquid cash with loans. That's why they were panicking when the market froze and the interbank rate hit 5%.
The government did back these loans, what do you think Fannie and Freddie do? Not only that, but Fannie and Freddie even dipped into the MBS market and bought some CDOs. None of this should have happened because Fannie and Freddie should never have been owned by the government. As for the liquidity that drove this bubble to its peak- what do you think caused it to inflate so much? It was the Federal Reserve's "loose money" policy and the governments willingness to prop up bad debt through Fannie and Freddie.

Quick note on bad meat, just look at Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle". People just didn't know it was going on, because the information wasn't available. We need oversight to spot these things on important fields.
I am aware of the Jungle, but information is a lot easier to come across nowadays and this is a lot less likely to happen. Also, I think oversight is ok, especially at the state and local levels- it is the regulations that really hurt the markets.

It's my opinion. When an American loses a job, they get next to nothing in unemployment. Spending ends, and people start worrying about how to pay the mortgage or the rent. When the same thing happens to a European, spending slows. A European, in general, doesn't have to worry about the mortgage, or the rent, or paying for their medical care. Consequently, there isn't the same domino effect, and any impact is slower.
A European still has to worry about taxes- a lot of socialists seem to forget that. And what about all of the deadweight losses you are creating with these taxes and socialized programs? All of that will lead to less growth in the long run. A free market, on the other hand, is a lot better at having more growth in the future at a sustainable rate.

Now at the end of all this, China and India's economies might look good on paper, and the US might look better than Europe. But it is not supposed to be about getting the economy healthy. It's supposed to be about doing it with the least damage to the people. Ours people will have been far more severely damaged than Europe's, and India and China have incredibly damaged people already.
This sort of thinking is very short-sighted. Sure, in the short run socialism may be better, but if you look at the long run you will see that capitalism and the lack of socialism is what is more sustainable and creates more prosperity. It is socialism that has created all of these bubbles and recessions in this past century so bad. As for the people in China and India, you really need to look at the history of why those people are like that. First of all, conditions are getting better drastically in both countries. Second, the reason that India has so much poverty is because of the very socialist policies it had from the 1950s to 1980s coupled with the aftermath of freedom from Britain. As soon as they ditched those policies, growth and conditions started to get better. As for China, the reason their conditions are bad in some places is because the government is communist politically. The lack of freedoms is what lets the government oppress the people and leads to these conditions. Want another example? Look at what Japan did around 1990 when they were in a crisis very similar to ours and look how that turned out. Another one? The Soviet Union. Look at history and tell me where socialism works. Can't? Because in the long run it never does.
 
Mar 2009
2,188
2
I'm a little confused here. I always thought the SEC was very aggressive in its pursuit of fraud. Which fraud did it miss out that you're concerned about? If it is about the debt instruments, how could they have picked up on it as fraud? When the banks were investing in it as real investment products? If there are any institutions that need to be investigated then obviously they have to be the banks themselves????? I have not once heard about the obvious appointment of a Committee of Investigation into the Banking Crisis of the US.
 
Last edited:

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
I'm a little confused here. I always thought the SEC was very aggressive in its pursuit of fraud. Which fraud did it miss out that you're concerned about? If it is about the debt instruments, how could they have picked up on it as fraud? When the banks were investing in it as real investment products? If there are any institutions that need to be investigated then obviously they have to be the banks themselves????? I have not once heard about the obvious appointment of a Committee of Investigation into the Banking Crisis of the US.
Well the SEC has failed to do its job. Even if it can't do anything to stop the CDOs from being created and sold, it should have still caught it simply because it was still overseeing those parts of the market. A warning should have been given at how dangerous those assets were, yet the SEC failed to even realize it.

If that doesn't do it for you then the Bernie Madoff case will because that was just a textbook definition of fraud. Madoff ran one of the biggest ponzi schemes ever and stole billions of dollars from his investors.
 
Mar 2009
2,751
6
Undisclosed
This will build confidence!! I can't believe this.

AIG director named to Obama tax task force


WASHINGTON (CNN) -- One of the people named this week to President Obama's new Task Force on Tax Reform is a member of the AIG board of directors.
Martin Feldstein, a professor of economics at Harvard University, has been on the board of American International Group since 1988. He also was a prominent economic adviser to Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.
Asked about the AIG connection, a senior administration official said Friday that the White House declined to comment on the story.
Like the others named to the tax reform task force, Feldstein also serves on Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, which is headed by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.


http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/03/27/aig.taskforce/index.html?eref=rss_topstories
 
Mar 2009
2,188
2
Well the SEC has failed to do its job. Even if it can't do anything to stop the CDOs from being created and sold, it should have still caught it simply because it was still overseeing those parts of the market. A warning should have been given at how dangerous those assets were, yet the SEC failed to even realize it.

If that doesn't do it for you then the Bernie Madoff case will because that was just a textbook definition of fraud. Madoff ran one of the biggest ponzi schemes ever and stole billions of dollars from his investors.
But is mortgage lending the job of the SEC? I would have thought it would have been the Federal Reserve Bank:
Purpose of Federal Reserve System:
The primary motivation for creating the Federal Reserve System was to address banking panics.[13] Other purposes are stated in the Federal Reserve Act, such as "to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes."[14] Before the founding of the Federal Reserve, the United States underwent several financial crises. A particularly severe crisis in 1907 led Congress to enact the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. Today the Fed has broader responsibilities than only ensuring the stability of the financial system.[13]
Current functions of the Federal Reserve System include:[13][15]
To address the problem of banking panics
To serve as the central bank for the United States
To strike a balance between private interests of banks and the centralized responsibility of government
To supervise and regulate banking institutions
To protect the credit rights of consumers
To manage the nation's money supply through monetary policy to achieve the sometimes conflicting goals of
maximum employment
stable prices, including prevention of either inflation or deflation[16]
moderate long-term interest rates
To maintain the stability of the financial system and contain systemic risk in financial markets
To provide financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions, including playing a major role in operating the nation’s payments system
To facilitate the exchange of payments among regions
To respond to local liquidity needs
To strengthen U.S. standing in the world economy
Critics of the Federal Reserve System state that it is not able to accomplish these goals.[17]

[edit] Addressing the problem of bank panics
 
Mar 2009
422
4
Florida, USA
The SEC should have regulatory control over the securities that were made by putting together pieces of mortgages and traded on bond markets.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
But is mortgage lending the job of the SEC? I would have thought it would have been the Federal Reserve Bank:
The SEC still should have seen this problem coming because it was so huge and the buyers of CDOs had no idea what was even in them (some of the banks selling them didn't either.)
The SEC should have regulatory control over the securities that were made by putting together pieces of mortgages and traded on bond markets.
And how do you propose they do that? It is easy to say this should have been regulated or that should've been stopped, but it is a lot harder to come up with an efficient solution that can actually do those things.
 
Mar 2009
2,188
2
The SEC still should have seen this problem coming because it was so huge and the buyers of CDOs had no idea what was even in them (some of the banks selling them didn't either.)
And how do you propose they do that? It is easy to say this should have been regulated or that should've been stopped, but it is a lot harder to come up with an efficient solution that can actually do those things.
I think we have argued that before. And you have a very strong position on it too. We have to have less interference in the economy by Government. More regulation means more Government. Bail-out means more Government. The brief of the SEC as far as I can understand did not include banking or real estate deals. Easy for Banks/Government to try and blame it on the SEC. SEC investigations usually starts with a complaint being lodged, before they can investigate. So someone from the Banks/Government would have had to have lodged a complaint with the SEC, can you see that happening?
 
Last edited:
Mar 2009
422
4
Florida, USA
I think we have argued that before. And you have a very strong position on it too. We have to have less interference in the economy by Government. More regulation means more Government. Bail-out means more Government. The brief of the SEC as far as I can understand did not include banking or real estate deals. Easy for Banks/Government to try and blame it on the SEC. SEC investigations usually starts with a complaint being lodged, before they can investigate. So someone from the Banks/Government would have had to have lodged a complaint with the SEC, can you see that happening?

None of the government agencies saw this coming because they were all staffed with Bush appointees who know that to disagree with him was political suicide and that once he had made up his mind (or absorbed what Cheney told him) he would never reconsider no matter how obvious it became that he had taken the wrong position. If your job depends on saying the sky is yellow, a yellow sky is what you see.

And as far as needing less government interference and less regulation, that is what got us into this mess. Generally, when I do something that causes me great pain, I try to stop doing it, and try to find something that will make me feel better. Doing anything else is masochistic.
 
Mar 2009
2,188
2
None of the government agencies saw this coming because they were all staffed with Bush appointees who know that to disagree with him was political suicide and that once he had made up his mind (or absorbed what Cheney told him) he would never reconsider no matter how obvious it became that he had taken the wrong position. If your job depends on saying the sky is yellow, a yellow sky is what you see.
I can't agree with this. This sounds quite farfetched Not to mention a gigantic insult to those agencies that you are referring to, especially the SEC, which is known and respected as one of the best forensic investigators in the world. Bush has never been a dictator, nor did he act alone, as far as I know the United States is a democracy, not an autocracy. Next thing you're going to say Bush was responsible for the Big Bank debts as well! How about the Big Banks being made responsible for the debts that they signed off for, including the enormous bonusses executives are paying themselves? Instead of trying to blame all the agencies? As far as I know the same management reponsible for those failing banks are still firmly in their jobs, and not much said about them not their compliance officers?
 
Last edited:
Jan 2009
639
5
I have to disagree with you Curious. I don't think they were afraid of Bush or Cheney. The big problem was that nobody knew what to do. There wasn't really a solution that would have worked better than what we have now. We were mainly just hoping that they would settle it all themselves. As Greenspan put it once, we just didn't think the individual banks would destroy their own industry so quickly.

Deanhills - Yeah. The banks really should pay for the debts themselves and they will in the long run. They killed the golden goose with this mess. A lot of them lost a lot of their trading freedom with their irresponsibility. There will definitely be more regulation once this is sorted out.

Unfortunately we have no choice in the matter. We need a financial system and we unfortunately need the managers to stay on board. They weren't necessarily doing anything wrong...just playing fast and loose. They still have the skills we need, so they get to ride along until we can replace them.

Like I said before, you don't shoot holes in your lifeboat to kill the snakes.
 

myp

Jan 2009
5,841
50
I think we have argued that before. And you have a very strong position on it too. We have to have less interference in the economy by Government. More regulation means more Government. Bail-out means more Government. The brief of the SEC as far as I can understand did not include banking or real estate deals. Easy for Banks/Government to try and blame it on the SEC. SEC investigations usually starts with a complaint being lodged, before they can investigate. So someone from the Banks/Government would have had to have lodged a complaint with the SEC, can you see that happening?
The SEC can start its own investigations and it is responsible for regulating and enforcing laws concerning various types of securities including stock and option exchanges. The CDOs and MBS were subject to SEC oversight, the SEC simply failed to do its job. In a situation as big as this one, complaints are not something that they can use as an excuse because if they just looked at loan levels and the types of loans being made to certain people, it was obvious that a lot of them would eventually default when the housing market went down. If they seriously thought the housing market was not ever going to go down, then that is even worse. No matter what excuse is made, the SEC takes some of the blame for this and they did fail to do their job.
None of the government agencies saw this coming because they were all staffed with Bush appointees who know that to disagree with him was political suicide and that once he had made up his mind (or absorbed what Cheney told him) he would never reconsider no matter how obvious it became that he had taken the wrong position. If your job depends on saying the sky is yellow, a yellow sky is what you see.
Where did you get this idea? Please provide proof before making ridiculous and absurd claims such as these. Also, please note that this crisis was in the making longer than the time Bush was in office. It spanned back several years including into the Clinton years.

Also, a lot of the staff had been there before Bush's time. I mean Greenspan was the chairman of the Fed from 1987. How do you explain that? Was he and his team afraid of every president since Reagan?

I am no Bush fan, but what you said is just shocking and frankly, uncalled for. From your previous posts I know you are probably an Obama supporter- you might want to be wary before blindly following him because he puts politics before principle a lot too (how else do you explain the mounting debt he is building? With this spending he is trying to create temporary relief which will make his administration look good, but in the long run it is disasterous). Bush did it too, but not to the extent that you are saying.

And as far as needing less government interference and less regulation, that is what got us into this mess.
Again, why don't you give me examples and support your claim? Blindly saying things such as this adds nothing to your argument and only hurts your ethos.
 
Jan 2009
639
5
A note on the SEC. What could they have done? The banks weren't doing anything illegal. It was reckless and should have been stopped through regulation, but it wasn't. What could the SEC have really done.

MYP - He's right about the fact that less regulation made this what it is. We've talked about this before. Unregulated credit default swaps, looser leverage requirements, and generally relaxed banking laws were a major factor. The Fed and the White House held the interest rates low and created the bubble, but the bubble alone didn't cause the problem.

If there were tighter regulations, then the banks wouldn't have been so overleveraged and AIG wouldn't have been able to legally play so fast and loose with credit default swaps. The crisis would have hurt them, but they wouldn't have had the solvency crisis. If they weren't worried about going bankrupt for lack of liquid cash, then things wouldn't have been as bad.
 
Top